ruble weakening will add 1.5-3% to inflation – Kommersant

The weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro by about 30% compared to the beginning of the year will add 1.5 to 3 percentage points to the overall inflation. Economists from the HSE Development Center presented this conclusion in the latest issue of comments on the state and business, dedicated to the discussion of inflation and monetary policy for the first half of the year.

The report notes that since the beginning of 2023 (based on data from the Moscow Exchange on January 3 – 71.14 rubles / $ and 74.8 rubles / €), the ruble has weakened by about 30% against the dollar and the euro. According to the charts presented in the bulletin, the ruble depreciated by approximately 27% over the six months, and by 33% compared to the euro.

On August 7, the weakening of the ruble intensified. Yesterday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange at the moment exceeded mark 97 rubles. for the first time since March 25, 2022. The euro exchange rate exceeded 106 rubles. However, the trading day ended with the results of 95.3 rubles/$ and up to 105.3 rubles/€.

“The potential pro-inflationary effect in quantitative terms is significant and amounts to +1.5–3.0 p.p. to headline inflation,” the Center for Development said in its bulletin. At the same time, experts note that the transfer of foreign exchange costs to prices turned out to be delayed due to the large volume of reserves formed at a low exchange rate, and has not yet fully manifested itself.

Rosstat data also point to the acceleration of inflation in the last weeks of July. Among its reasons are the rapid growth of private consumption and the weakening ruble. Analysts believe that each of these factors, to varying degrees, will be responsible for the fact that inflation will rise to 6% by the end of this year.

About what reasons for the short-term acceleration of consumer prices are called by experts – in the material “Kommersant” “The harvest of inflation is coming”.

Milena Kostereva