“Ruble devaluation can be expected next week”

Experts gave a forecast for changes in the exchange rate

The Central Bank announced the forecast for the ruble exchange rate not only for this, but also for the next three years of inflation. The forecast is based on analysts’ estimates and was published in the September study “Macroeconomic Survey of the Bank of Russia”. As analysts of the Central Bank expect, the average dollar exchange rate this year will be 69.4 rubles. “MK” decided to check this estimate with the forecasts of independent experts.

Nikolay Vavilov, specialist of the strategic research department at Total Research:

“The average exchange rate in 2022 is still a little less than 72 rubles per dollar and, most likely, by the end of the year it is unlikely to fall below 71, since in any case, the ruble is expected to devalue at least to 65 against the dollar. Otherwise, the budget with falling oil and gas revenues simply will not withstand the growing burden of social payments and spending on the Ukrainian conflict. The decline of the ruble seems especially logical given the fall in gas supplies to Europe and the upcoming oil embargo, coupled with a decline in oil prices.

And bearing in mind that tax revenues this year will be less and less and the fact that the budget deficit in July amounted to almost 900 billion rubles, we can expect the start of the devaluation of the ruble as early as next week. Firstly, the parameters of the budget rule will be announced, secondly, we can wait for information on the execution of the budget in August, thirdly, the quarterly expiration of futures will take place on the market (this is the final settlement between the buyer and the seller at the time of the completion of the contract – L.A. ), after which, as a rule, strong exchange rate movements begin.

Therefore, you should not expect the average ruble exchange rate for 2022 to be below 71 rubles – in the last three months of the year, it can easily jump from the current 60 to 70-75 if the conditional 65 rubles per dollar is not enough to fill the budget.

Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets:

“Currently, it is extremely difficult to make forecasts regarding exchange rates, because the geopolitical, and after it the financial situation, can change very quickly. At the beginning of this year, few people imagined that the price of oil would soar above $100 per barrel, that Russian banks would sell the dollar for 120 rubles, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rate would suddenly be set at 20%.

Therefore, now all forecasts are based on the fact that the situation in both the global and Russian economies will remain relatively stable. If this is the case, then indeed the dollar can cost an average of about 70 rubles. But any negative factors (for example, a drop in the cost of oil on the world market or an intensification of the global recession) can lead to a much stronger weakening of the ruble.

So far, based on the current situation, it is possible to predict the value of the dollar at the level of 67-69 rubles – at least until the end of the year. In the future, everything will depend on many factors, which, I repeat, are still difficult to predict.”

Ivan Samoylenko, Managing Partner at B&C Agency:

“If we take the average dollar exchange rates for the months given by the Central Bank, we can see that the dollar started the year with the marks of 75-77 rubles (January-February), then there was a sharp increase to 104 rubles (March), and already in April the decline began course: from 78 to 60 rubles in August. The average exchange rate for eight months is 71.9 rubles per dollar. This is quite within the framework that was originally budgeted for this year.

And, most likely, the forecast of the Central Bank will come true: there are no serious grounds for a sharp increase in the value of the dollar now. The only factor that can play on the weakening of the ruble is oil quotes, they have already fallen to 89-90 dollars from the summer level of 100-110 dollars per barrel. But surely the Central Bank’s actions to meet the demand for foreign currency, as well as the reorientation to payments in national currencies with our external partners, will keep the ruble at a stable level. Most likely, the dollar will gradually grow, but the average annual level will remain within 69-71 rubles per “American”.