Rosstat reported a decline in Russia’s GDP by 1.9% in the first quarter
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Russian GDP for the I quarter decreased by 1.9% in annual terms, follows from the preliminary estimates Rosstat, performed on the basis of the production method.
“The index of the physical volume of gross domestic product in the 1st quarter of 2023 relative to the 1st quarter of 2022, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 98.1%,” the statistical agency said in a statement.
According to Rosstat, passenger turnover (+15.7%), the construction industry (+8.8%), agriculture (+2.9%) and manufacturing (+1.1%) showed growth in January-March.
The decline was recorded in wholesale trade (-10.8%), water supply, sanitation and waste disposal (-10.2%), retail trade (-7.3%), mining (-3.3%), and as well as cargo turnover (-2.1%).
This assessment by Rosstat is based on the preliminary reporting of large and medium-sized enterprises in the non-financial sector. More detailed data for the first quarter, including information from the Central Bank and ministries, will be published on June 15.
In April, the Ministry of Economy improved the forecast for the Russian economy in 2023 from a decline of 0.8% (in the September forecast) to growth of 1.2%. The main contribution to economic growth, according to Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, will be made by the recovery of consumer demand after the recession in 2022. The expected growth in household incomes will contribute to this, he noted. The forecast for GDP growth next year has been reduced from 2.6% to 2%. In 2025, the indicator will grow by 2.6%.
Later, the Bank of Russia also improved the forecast for Russian GDP dynamics: the regulator now expects economic growth of 0.5-2% in 2023, although back in February it expected a decline. The Bank of Russia also expects inflation to be lower than expected in February – at the level of 4.5–6.5% against 5–7%. The Ministry of Economy predicts price growth at the level of 5.3%.
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