Rosstat recorded a record: experts evaluated data on the reduction of the poor

“Average temperature in the hospital, including the morgue”

Rosstat recorded a decrease in the share of the poor to a record 9.8%. At the end of 2022, the number of people below the poverty line fell to 14.3 million. It is generally accepted that the reduction in the number of beggars is a positive sign. As well as an increase in the stratum of people with critically low incomes, this is a clear sign of a crisis and difficulties in the economy. But experts warn that in the current situation, not everything is so simple. Due to what statisticians managed to reduce the share of the poor, and how the poverty level will change in 2023, MK understood.

According to a Rosstat study, the number of people living below the poverty line in Russia has decreased over the past year – now there are 14.3 million of them. That is, their share amounted to a record 9.8%, and this is, in fact, the lowest figure since 1992 . Well, also, the differentiation of the population in terms of income has decreased to 13.8 times – and this is the lowest value since 1998. Everything is so, but then, as they say, the nuances begin.

According to the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev, it is important to understand that this indicator is based on the ratio of the income level of 10% of the richest and 10% of the poorest Russians.

“This is “the average temperature for the hospital, including the morgue,” he continues. “Several factors may have affected the score. Firstly, the high mortality rate of pensioners in the covid era is not a secret that it is in this age group that most people live below the poverty line. Secondly, over the past year there has been a serious outflow of the economically active population from the country: many highly paid specialists – IT specialists and others – have left. That is, on the one hand, the number of the poorest has decreased, and on the other hand, the number of the rich has decreased. So the average level has gone up.”

But, of course, it is worth mentioning the efforts of the state. Thanks to various programs to support the poor, over the past five years, 3.6 million Russians have been able to improve their affairs and step over the poverty line.

The decrease in the share of the poor in Russia is the result of both a revision of the statistical model and, at the same time, a consequence of the systematic actions of the government in this direction, says Ivan Samoylenko, managing partner of the B&C Agency communications agency.

The poorest citizens of the country are considered to be Russians whose monthly income is less than the minimum wage (minimum wage). It is known to be indexed annually. If in 2021 the number of such citizens was about 20 million people (income less than 13 thousand rubles a month), then at the end of last year the minimum wage was already higher (15 thousand rubles). As a result, there are fewer statistically poor people. And Rosstat is now using a different approach – the calculations take into account not the average level of income in the country, but the median, which gives a more complete picture of the stratification of the welfare of the population of the Russian Federation.

“People’s incomes also take into account various subsidies, lump-sum payments, etc. And the government of the Russian Federation annually raises such benefits. On average, people already receive more money, which also affects the data in Rosstat information, the expert notes. – Since 2023, the minimum wage has been increased again (up to 17 thousand rubles per month), and in connection with this, various benefits are also increasing. Maternity capital, payments to families with children (they are optimized) and other subsidies also increased. So it is worth counting that by the end of this year the proportion of poor citizens in the country will decrease even more – this is the goal set by the Russian leadership.”

Meanwhile, not all experts share Samoylenko’s position.

“I would not count on such rosy results next year: in the covid era, many lost their jobs, small businesses have not yet fully recovered, plus a sanctions blow to the economy. I would say that if we maintain the current level of poverty, it will be very good,” says Artem Deev.