Rosstat presented positive and negative scenarios for changes in the number of residents of the Russian Federation

Rosstat presented two versions of the demographic forecast for Russia until 2046: high and low. An optimistic version of the forecast, as reported by RBC, assumes an increase in the Russian population by 4.59 million people, to 150.87 million by the beginning of 2046. According to the pessimistic version, by 2046 the country’s population will decrease by 15.4 million and amount to 130.6 million people.

Demographic forecasts were compiled without taking into account the population living in the four regions that became part of Russia. From the high version of the Rosstat forecast, it follows that a stable increase in the population of Russia is expected from the beginning of 2030, and its pace will gradually increase – from 0.1 thousand people in 2030 to 526 thousand in 2045. Positive dynamics, according to Rosstat, will be ensured due to high migration growth (about 390 thousand people annually), as well as a slowdown in natural population decline.

A positive forecast also assumes a reduction in mortality in Russia. The minimum level of 1.46 million people should be reached in 2039. At the same time, in the next six years the number will grow, but will not exceed 1%, according to Rosstat. In 2024, the number of deaths, according to the service, will be 1.76 million people.

In addition, Rosstat expects that by 2045 the number of births in Russia will reach its maximum – 1.59 million people in absolute terms. The total fertility rate (the number of children per woman), according to the positive demographic scenario, will be 1.78.

The negative demographic forecast of Rosstat suggests that from the beginning of 2024 to the beginning of 2046, the population of Russia, excluding four new regions, will decrease to 130.6 million people. Natural decline, according to the pessimistic version of the forecast, will increase in the coming years and will reach a maximum in 2033 – 901.2 thousand people.

At the same time, over time, the natural population decline in Russia will gradually decrease under the influence of high birth rates. The maximum number of births is expected in 2042 – 1.23 million people, after which the figure will begin to decline again. Thus, the total fertility rate in 2045 will be 1.46.

The number of deaths in Russia, according to Rosstat’s negative scenario, will grow throughout most of the forecast period. Starting in 2032, the figure will exceed 2 million people per year and reach a maximum in 2039 – 2.09 million people. Further, the number of deaths will begin to decline, but by no more than 1% per year, according to Rosstat.

According to forecasts presented by Rosstat, in October 2023, by 2045 life expectancy in Russia will increase from 73.1 years to 79.83 years. By the middle of the next decade, life expectancy for women is expected to be about 83.24 years, for men – 75.89 years.

Read more about how Russia plans to solve demographic problems in the Kommersant article. “Russians are turned into family”.