Rosstat indicates a slowdown in industrial production in May
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New data from Rosstat indicate a slowdown in industrial production in May – its seasonally adjusted growth is estimated at 0.7% m/m after 1.7% in April and 1.4% in March. In annual terms, in May, industrial production increased by 7.1% at once, but this is due to the effect of the low base of last year. Growth in processing in annual terms amounted to 12.8% (8% in April), compared to the level of two years ago – 8.6%, the Ministry of Economy notes.
Seasonally adjusted, according to the ministry, the growth in processing in May amounted to 3.1% (2.8% in April). A significant contribution was made by mechanical engineering and metallurgy – 7.1 percentage points (p.p.) and 3.1 p.p. respectively. Growth by May 2022 was shown by manufacturers of transport (by 86.3%), electrical equipment (49.5%), computers and electronics (31.5%). In the mining sector, growth in annual terms is 1.9% after 3.1% in April. With the exception of seasonality, mining showed a decrease – by 0.5% after rising by 1% in April – and near-zero dynamics compared to the level of two years ago.
The expansion of output has so far taken place on the basis of over-optimistic expectations in the industry, but in recent months, enterprises have lowered their estimates of the prospects for expanding output, including due to a shortage of personnel. According to the Gaidar Institute, in May-June, investment plans lost their positive and again became close to zero (see Kommersant of June 23).
In June, Rosstat records a cautious increase in the index of entrepreneurial confidence in processing – by 0.1 percentage points compared to May (to 4.5%) and a decrease in production – by 0.3 percentage points (to 2.5%). At the same time, in mining and processing, the share of positive assessments of current demand and a decrease in assessments of output prospects increased. The average level of production capacity utilization in mining remained at the level of May – 56%, in processing it decreased by 3 percentage points, to the level of June 2022, and amounted to 59%.
The RSPP index, published yesterday, also records a deterioration in business sentiment – this indicator fell by 0.4 points in June to 48.1 points. Entrepreneurs improved estimates of almost all indicators (demand for final and investment products, financial situation and relations with government agencies), but at the same time, personal estimates of the business climate fell sharply – from 51.4 points to 45.1 points, which can be explained by increased uncertainty in economics.
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