Rosstat estimated GDP growth in the third quarter at a record 5.5% since the end of 2021

Russia’s GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 relative to the corresponding period last year amounted to 5.5%, follows from the preliminary assessments Rosstat. This is a record quarterly growth in Russian GDP since the fourth quarter of 2021, as follows from (.xlsx) service data. Rosstat’s estimate turned out to be higher than the calculations of the Ministry of Economy, which estimated GDP growth in the third quarter at 5.2%, and the Bank of Russia – 5.1%.

Rosstat’s commentary states that when calculating GDP for the third quarter, industry statistics indicators were used, which showed an increase in production during the reporting period in the following types of economic activity:

• wholesale turnover – +22.9%;
• retail turnover – +11.3%;
• manufacturing industries – +10.2%;
• construction – +8.0%;
• passenger turnover – +6.3%;
• agriculture – +4.0%;
• water supply, sewerage, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities – +3.4%.

Rosstat will publish more detailed data on GDP growth estimates in the third quarter on December 13. The service does not provide GDP dynamics for January–September 2023. According to Interfax calculations based on quarterly data, during this period GDP grew by 2.9%. Previously, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin assessed GDP growth for nine months was 2.8%.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, GDP growth in 2023 will be approximately 2.2–2.7%. The official forecast of the Ministry of Economy is GDP growth in 2023 by 2.7%. According to European Commission estimates, Russia’s GDP this year will increase on 2%.

Erdni Kagaltynov