Rosstat confirms strong consumer demand
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Rosstat published a new batch of macroeconomic data for 2023 and January 2024, confirming strong consumer demand supported by accelerating wage growth and declining unemployment. Calculations by the Ministry of Economy show that real consumer spending (the sum of retail, catering and paid services turnover) in January increased by 8% year-on-year versus 9% a month earlier (an increase of 3.1% compared to the level of two years ago versus 1.4% a month earlier) . The consumption of services continues to grow at an accelerating pace (in February 2024, according to Sberindex, too), which worries the Central Bank in terms of inflationary consequences. According to Rosstat, taking into account seasonality, by the average monthly indicators of 2021, retail turnover was already growing, as in January 2022, and services – more than twice as fast (see chart).
Consumption continues to be supported by strong growth in real income (4.6% in 2023, 5.4% in disposable income), accelerating in the fourth quarter to 6.8% year-on-year (the highest since 2010). Contributions to their dynamics were made by wages (plus 4.2 percentage points, 7.3% in real terms), income from business activities – 1.4 percentage points, plus 24.1% y/y, and social payments – 0.4 p.p. (1.8% y/y) against the backdrop of a decrease in the contribution of property income by 3.2 p.p. (minus 40.7%). According to the Central Bank, consumer lending continued to grow relatively quickly in January (see Kommersant on February 16). Taking into account seasonality, according to the Ministry of Economy, unemployment in January 2024 reached a new historical low of 2.8%.
At the same time, industrial production growth in January in annual terms accelerated to 4.6% – above December (2.7%) and November 2023 (4.5%) – primarily due to the manufacturing sector and “mainly due to industries oriented towards domestic demand,” is recorded by the Ministry of Economy. Mechanical engineering continues to make the greatest positive contribution to industrial dynamics (4.5 percentage points out of 7.5%), and with metallurgy and the food industry this is 89% of the total growth in processing output in January. But the short-term dynamics of the sector (taking into account month-to-month seasonality) is slowing down – it passed the peak of growth in the second half of 2023. According to the Ministry of Economy, in January 2024, GDP was 4.6% higher than the 2023 level compared to 4.4% in December 2024. By the level of January 2022, GDP increased by 1.9% after 2.3% in December 2023 by December 2021.
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