Rosatom may build another 4.8 GW nuclear power plant in Turkey

Rosatom has developed a possible scheme for financing the construction of a second 4.8 GW nuclear power plant in Turkey. The state corporation can use for construction the proceeds from the sale of electricity from the Akkuyu NPP, the first power unit of which can start operating in 2024. The cost of the second station, according to analysts, can be covered in ten years of operation of the first nuclear power plant, which approximately corresponds to the construction time of such an object. The creation of the second nuclear power plant will reduce the consumption of gas and coal at local thermal power plants and cover their own growing demand for energy.

Rosatom can use income from the sale of electricity from the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey to build a second nuclear power plant in the north of the republic. On September 4, the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, said in an interview with Channel One that it is expected “in the second half of the twenties” to have “decent revenue” from the sale of energy in Turkey: “We will have, relatively speaking, the Turkish investment resource, which we will invest in a new station, if such a decision is made.

The second station can be built near the city of Sinop. From a technical point of view, it will be equivalent to the Akkuyu NPP, Mr. Likhachev said, that is, it will consist of four VVER-1200 power units of 1.2 GW each. Türkiye has been discussing a second nuclear power plant near Sinop with Russia for several years. The site near Sinop has already been partially prepared for the construction of a nuclear facility. Since 2008, preparatory work has been carried out there for the construction of a nuclear power plant and a nuclear technology center. It was assumed that a consortium led by the Japanese Mitsubishi and the French Framatome would build a 4.6 GW nuclear power plant based on the new Atmea1 reactors under the BOO (build-own-operate) scheme. However, in the end, Ankara refused, as the project has risen sharply in price due to the cost of security systems.

Rosatom has been building a 4.8 GW nuclear power plant in Turkey since 2018 on the Mediterranean coast. Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the construction is going according to plan, the launch of the first power unit will take place in 2024. Moscow and Ankara signed an intergovernmental agreement on construction in 2010, the project is being built according to the BOO scheme.

The investor will return investments through the guaranteed sale of part of the NPP electricity at a fixed rate, and the rest on the free market. The station will generate about 35 billion kWh per year, which will cover about 10% of Turkey’s electricity needs.

As of September 3, Turkey’s total installed power capacity is 105.35 GW. In 2022, Turkey’s power plants generated 328.38 billion kWh. About 60% of the generation came from thermal power plants, including 23% from gas and 35% from coal. Total demand in Turkey last year exceeded 331.1 billion kWh.

Electricity consumption in Turkey has increased by 60% over the past decade, and now the same trend towards rapid growth continues, says Igor Chausov, director of the analytical direction of ANO EnergyNet Center. By 2030, consumption in the republic, according to model calculations, may exceed 400 billion kWh, and the level of provision of the country with primary energy sources, according to the IEA, does not exceed 40%, he notes.

Construction of a second large nuclear power plant in Turkey looks like a logical step, especially given the proposed financing scheme, where Rosatom investments will actually continue to work in Turkey’s construction complex for a “second term,” says Kept’s Sergey Rozhenko. The introduction of new nuclear generation will replace gas and imported coal, which will both replace expensive electricity generation and free up gas volumes – in the equivalent of about 6-7 billion cubic meters – for transit to the EU, he believes. In addition, the presence of a nuclear power plant will make it possible to have more predictable generation at the peak of loads in the summer during a period of heat and low water content – the most difficult season for the Turkish energy industry.

As for the financing scheme, it looks realistic, Sergei Rozhenko continues. “According to publicly available data, part of the output from Akkuyu NPP will be sold at a fixed price of $125 per 1 MWh, and the rest is planned to be sold on the wholesale market, where the price is also in the range of about $100. Thus, the NPP revenue can be about $4 billion per year, and the operating profitability of the NPP is about $2 billion,” he says. With the declared price of the Akkuyu NPP at $20 billion, the cost of the second plant can be covered in ten years, which roughly corresponds to the construction time for such an object, Mr. Rozhenko sums up.

Polina Smertina