Revealed the role of Erdogan in the revision of the “grain deal”

“Ukrainian grain enters world markets, but there are questions with Russian food”

Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, President Putin touched on the topic of the “grain deal” and announced the possibility of limiting the export of Ukrainian grain, which goes to Europe instead of the poorest countries. According to the head of state, he is ready to discuss this problem with his Turkish counterpart Erdogan. We asked political scientists to comment on the situation.

– As I understand it, Russia’s serious disappointment lies in the fact that the “grain deal” was envisaged as one of the components of opening up opportunities for Russian food exports, – comments Alexei Makarkin, First Vice President of the Center for Political Studies. – That is, not only for Ukrainian, but also for Russian, which is faced with sanctions.

As far as one can understand Russia’s position on this issue, no concessions followed. I think that this is what matters in the first place. The deal, however, provides for some kind of exchange, but here the grain goes to world markets, and there are questions with Russian food.

This was also stated by the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Vasily Nebenzya, who said that the deal may not be extended. In fact, this is a preparation for the fact that there may be a non-renewal option if Russian requirements are not taken into account.

Turkish President Erdogan is trying to become an intermediary, but he has so far achieved one success on the “grain deal”, and that success has been called into question, because Russia is clearly unhappy with its execution. She probably expected something else for her interests, but this did not follow. Therefore, Erdogan seeks to somehow expand this success, but so far nothing has worked. Moreover, the prospects for the deal itself are now becoming unclear (whether it will be extended or not).

Erdogan’s role largely depends on the future prospects of the “grain deal”, and here not everything depends on him. Yet Erdogan did not impose sanctions, but the West imposed them.

Well, as for Erdogan himself, there is another problem. We pay attention to the foreign policy component of his activities. But there is also an internal political situation, and it is rather complicated in Turkey.

There will be elections next year, and so far, according to polls, opposition candidates in the second round bypass Erdogan. The country has high inflation, economic problems, and the main plus for Erdogan in the eyes of the population was the economy. Now this plus has turned into a minus, the second plus remains – the strengthening of Turkey’s position in the international arena.

And here Erdogan strives to make every effort, but, again, foreign policy topics are usually secondary for voters.

The opposition just focuses on internal problems, on the economy, inflation and so on. Therefore, Erdogan’s problem is what will happen to him next year. Will he be re-elected for a new term or will the opposition win?

Commenting on the words of the President of the Russian Federation that most of the grain remains in Europe and does not reach the poorest countries, as it was originally intended, Alexei Mukhin, Director General of the Center for Political Information, noted: “The system that is offered in the West as an honest one is actually such is not. That is, the system of distribution of world goods is a system of taking away individual funds and resources from countries that cannot protect themselves on their own. That is why the NATO bloc has turned from a regional to a global one in order to guarantee this withdrawal as safely as possible for those interested.

– And the solution to this issue lies largely with Putin and Erdogan?

– I would say that Putin and Xi Jinping have a big role here. Because Russia and China are two countries that, in principle, can guarantee the rest of the UN member states the creation of a system of equitable distribution of resources.

– Does Erdogan play a secondary role?

“I wouldn’t belittle him, but Turkey simply doesn’t have the kind of resource and production base that Russia and China have.”