Reuters: experts estimate the probability of a recession in the US during the year at 45%

Experts estimate the probability of a recession in the US during 2022 at 45%, should from a Reuters poll. At the same time, experts estimate the probability of a recession in the country over the next two years at 50%.

According to a survey conducted from August 16 to 19, most economists predict a 0.5 percentage point increase in the key rate next month, to 2.75% -3.00%. At the same time, almost 90% of economists believe that the rate by the end of 2022 will be in the range of 3.25-3.50%.

On July 27, the Fed raised it to 2.25-2.5% per annum for the second time in a row. In the report, the regulator also noted that it intends to raise the base interest rate until the authorities record a significant decrease in inflation in the country. The July rate increase was the fourth in a row over the past six months.

In early August, the US Department of Labor reported that consumer prices in the US grew up by 8.5% year-on-year after a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

The US Department of Commerce at the end of July reported that, according to preliminary estimates, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9% in the second quarter on an annualized basis. The recession of the American economy has been going on for two quarters. According to the results of the first quarter, it amounted to 1.4%.

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