Retailers are stacking up in the near abroad

Sanctions and the development of parallel imports have forced Russian retailers, distributors and delivery operators to reconsider their logistics routes. Since the beginning of the year, their demand for warehouses in the post-Soviet countries has grown by almost a third. The main interest is still accumulating in Kazakhstan, where there is already a shortage of space. The new approach to logistics will also affect the Russian regions, where the warehouse market development vector will shift to the south of the country, while the areas in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, where there were hubs for the delivery of goods from the EU, are no longer in demand.

The demand of Russian business for warehouse space in the post-Soviet countries has grown by 25-30% since the beginning of the year, Konstantin Fomichenko, regional director of NF Group, told Kommersant. Although such a noticeable dynamics is due to a low base, the growth in demand is due to the possibility of parallel imports to the Russian Federation through third countries, the expert explains. Viktor Afanasenko, regional director of the warehouse real estate department at Nikoliers, confirms the growth in applications for the search for warehouse space in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. CORE.XP Senior Director Anton Alyabyev adds that so far we are talking about finding small warehouses with an area of ​​​​5-10 thousand square meters. m.

The greatest demand from tenants, according to Konstantin Fomichenko, is in Kazakhstan. In this country, there is already a shortage of space: according to NF Group estimates, the vacancy of warehouse complexes in the republic is zero. Yulia Shlenskaya, president of the KBT Service customs broker, explains that international corporations have transferred imports to Kazakh branches for further resale of products to Russian counterparties. But she does not expect a sharp increase in cargo traffic through Kazakhstan, as cargo owners and carriers will try to work through the Far East and Mongolia. Mr. Fomichenko considers Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan promising in terms of business demand for warehouses.

Now warehouse capacities in the post-Soviet countries, according to Konstantin Fomichenko, are of interest mainly to retailers and online retailers. Wildberries told Kommersant that they continue to increase storage capacity in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Ozon speaks of great interest in facilities in the CIS countries. Alexandra Shakola, Deputy Director for Leasing and Marketing at Radius Group, draws attention to the activity of logistics companies building new supply routes. She cites SDEK as an example, which plans to purchase and deliver part of the goods through Kazakhstan, and Russian Post, which launched road freight transportation from Yekaterinburg to Kazakhstan.

But while the warehouse markets of the post-Soviet countries are not developed: the total volume of their supply in the NF Group is estimated at 3.3 million square meters. m is 11.5 times less than in Russia. Consultants do not rule out that new players and major projects will appear here in the near future. Director General of Orientir Andrey Postnikov believes that Russian warehouse developers can also consider entering the near abroad. But Ghelamco’s commercial director, Alexander Perfiliev, is still skeptical of the directions, pointing to limited capacity. “It is unprofitable for developers building huge logo parks to assemble a team and contractors from scratch for the sake of facilities for 20-30 thousand square meters. m,” he explains.

Based on the specifics of the markets, Russian developers will also need to attract local partners to work, adds Anton Alyabyev. The expert indicates that he sees interest in the CIS countries from Russian developers. Igor Krotenkov, director for work with warehouse and industrial premises of IBC Real Estate, also speaks about the development of plans for developers to enter new countries.

These processes in the warehouse market will affect not only neighboring countries, but also Russian regions. Western sanctions, according to Yulia Shlenskaya, have changed the approach to logistics in general: “Warehouses are less and less in demand in the west of the country and more and more in the east.” As an example, she cites a sharp drop in demand for logoparks in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region against the backdrop of a narrowing of the import-export hub: “Free warehouse space here has become one and a half times more.” Alexandra Shakola predicts that the south and southeast of the country will develop more actively. Analysts of IBC Real Estate take a similar position, linking the further development of the logistics infrastructure in these parts of the country with an increase in throughput in these areas.

Alexandra Mertsalova, Daria Andrianova, Anatoly Kostyrev