Reshetnikov predicted the return of the economy to growth in late 2022 – early 2023
[ad_1]
The baseline scenario for the forecast of socio-economic development assumes that the economy will return to growth as early as late 2022 or early 2023, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum. And in quarterly terms, he said.
Given the high base at the beginning of this year, a slight decline can statistically be recorded at the end of the next year – by about 0.9% by 2022.
“The economy is steadily growing in 2023-2024. and after 2026 already by plus or minus a 3% trajectory,” Reshetnikov said. As a result, in the base scenario in 2030, growth of 17% by 2017 is laid. Moreover, this is exactly the basic scenario. It is based on the implementation of those programs on which decisions have already been made or are being made.
As for other forecast options, in particular, inertial and stressful ones, the Ministry of Economy traditionally calculates different scenarios: “there is a scenario “all the fears of the world,” Reshetnikov said.
“But we must understand that we use these scenarios, among other things, to compare what will happen if we implement or do not implement certain programs. They should be treated as workers’ “horror stories” or something,” the minister specified.
The base scenario is decomposed across all industries, he continued. “We clearly understand what kind of growth we will get in tourism, mining, manufacturing, what part of the growth will come from exports, what part from investments, and what part from the real incomes of the population,” Reshetnikov listed. The volume of investments, according to him, should grow by 30% in 2030 by 2021, real cash income – by 20%.
Subscribe on “Vedomosti” in Telegram and stay up to date with the main news of the economy and business
[ad_2]
Source link
