Reshetnikov answered the question about the exchange rate of the ruble with the phrase “our problem is in exports”

The head of the Ministry of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov, commenting on the reasons for the weakening of the ruble, pointed to “significantly reduced export prices.” According to him, the agency will provide an updated three-year macro forecast in August, in which it will evaluate the effectiveness of measures in terms of export and import volumes.

“Firstly, exchange rate issues are, after all, issues of the Central Bank in the first place, especially with regard to current fluctuations, market regulation, and so on,” Mr. Reshetnikov told reporters after a meeting on the socio-economic development of the Siberian District (quote from “Interfax”). However, according to him, in the forecast of socio-economic development, the Ministry of Economy will conduct an analysis “for each product group.”

“When preparing the forecast, our main question is how stable are the trends that we see now in our trade balance. Namely: a rather tangible decrease in exports and, in general, a significant increase in imports, and to what extent the measures taken in this direction are enough,” the minister said.

Among the measures, the effectiveness of which needs to be assessed, Maxim Reshetnikov listed import duties, recycling fees, reorientation of traffic flows. According to him, today there is already a decrease in import costs. At the same time, industries focused on domestic demand have not yet restarted. There is a “clear shortage” of Russian products that are being replaced by foreign ones.

“But our problem now is not in imports, of course, our problem is in exports, we are under pressure from significantly lower export prices,” the minister stressed. He pointed out that the decline in export prices is not fluctuations, but “trends in the global economy” that need to be assessed. In this part, it is also planned to forecast the exchange rate, oil prices, and export production volumes.

Head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina spokethat the rate is formed primarily under the influence of the trade balance: for example, in January-May 2023, exports in Russia fell by 40%, while imports grew by 15%. Meanwhile, according to bidding on the Moscow Exchange, on August 4, the euro exchange rate exceeded 106 rubles, the dollar – 96 rubles. for the first time since March 2022.

Lusine Balasyan