Republicans have chosen a candidate for Speaker of the US House of Representatives

Republicans at a closed meeting of the party nominated Majority Leader Steve Scalise for the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress. Thus, he defeated his rival Jim Jordan: 113 Republicans voted for Scalise, 99 for Jordan. Three did not vote. It is not yet known which congressmen supported whom at the secret meeting of Republicans. But by October 11, 47 Republicans in the House and former President Donald Trump publicly supported Jordan. In turn, 32 congressmen openly spoke out for Scalise.

During the previous caucus on Oct. 10, Republicans were unable to identify a candidate for speaker. At the event on October 10, Scalise and Jordan spoke to fellow party members. The former emphasized the importance of strengthening the US southern border, while the latter focused his speech on the importance of balanced fiscal policy.

At the same time, as Axios reports, citing sources, both recognized the need for a “short-term budget.” Its passage was one of the reasons for the October 3 ouster of the previous Republican speaker, Kevin McCarthy, as speaker due to dissatisfaction among the party’s right wing with the proposed terms of government funding.

There is still a bipartisan vote ahead in the House. The Speaker is elected by congressmen from both parties (Republicans and Democrats) by an ordinary majority (50% + 1 vote). Congressmen can vote for any candidate without regard to his party affiliation. Usually the position is given to a representative of the majority party. Now it is the Republicans – they have 221 votes out of 435, while the Democrats have 212.

Scalise will almost certainly be facing Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in the House. At the same time, the process of electing former Speaker McCarthy in the House in January 2023 was seriously delayed: he managed to get the required number of votes only after 15 rounds of voting. Although there have been longer speaker elections in US history. In 1855, 21 congressmen competed for the position – and only two months later, after 133 rounds of voting, Nathaniel Banks was elected speaker.

Republicans are disunited and it is unlikely that any foreign policy crisis would force them to quickly elect a speaker, says Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS. The expert emphasized that Trump’s decision to support Jordan could harm the congressman’s chances of being elected.

In her opinion, moderate Republicans consider Trump a liability and therefore did not want to support his candidate. However, Zhuravleva says, despite their numerical superiority, they will not be able to limit the influence of the party’s right wing. Therefore, issues such as providing assistance to Ukraine, as well as support for Israel and Taiwan, may remain partially or completely unresolved until the election of the speaker, the expert admits.

It is still difficult to say whether Scalise will be elected immediately or whether he will have to go through several rounds of voting, as was the case with McCarthy, says political scientist Jan Veselov. “Jim Jordan himself has not yet officially supported Scalise, and along with him, some conservatives who voted for him,” the expert said. But, as Veselov believes, it will be a little easier for Scalise, since he will need not 218, but 217 votes, because two seats in the House of Representatives are now vacant.

“I think that Scalise was chosen as the candidate for speaker, firstly, because he already held the second most senior position in the faction, and secondly, because he is a more mainstream candidate relative to Jordan and has more support from the faction establishment.” “, Veselov summed up.

The disunity of the Republican Party should not be considered solely in the context of contradictions on individual issues such as budget policy, says Andrei Kortunov, scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council. The Republicans’ main problem is a leadership crisis: the far right cannot offer a unifying figure, and the rest of the party is not ready to offer their voters anything new.

The expert also believes that some Democrats may support the Republican candidate in exchange for certain concessions. “But there is little space for dialogue,” Kortunov concluded.