Refineries are reducing refining: analyst Yushkov assessed a possible fuel shortage on the Russian market

What will the authorities do to prevent a shortage of petroleum products?

The situation on the Russian fuel market is stable. This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in the Federation Council. According to him, the domestic consumer of petroleum products is currently fully provided with the goods. But how long will we have enough gasoline and diesel? It is known that Russian refineries in January reduced refining by 4% compared to the same period last year. Will the domestic market face a fuel shortage? What tools can the authorities use to prevent a shortage of petroleum products: introduce protective duties or a total export embargo? Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, told MK about this.

—At the beginning of the year there was an accident at the largest oil refinery. What consequences can this situation lead to?

– The Nizhny Novgorod refinery where the accident occurred is one of the largest in terms of gasoline production. It should be clarified that approximately the same amount of gasoline is produced in Russia as is consumed on the domestic market: approximately 90% of what is produced is consumed immediately. So, the Nizhny Novgorod refinery produced approximately 10% of all Russian gasoline. It turns out that due to the accident we are faced with either a shortage in the domestic market or we stop exporting. As for diesel, about 50% of what Russia produces is exported. And here it is impossible to ban, for example, the export of diesel. Then all factories will have to either be stopped or reconfigured. And this is a rather dangerous story.

– And if you take only gasoline. What are the prospects for him?

– Ukraine is constantly trying to attack our processing plants, or oil storage facilities, fuel storage facilities. They are at risk. Therefore, the prospect of a physical production deficit is visible here. But there is a way out of this situation. We will be able to buy more gasoline from Belarus. They have two large refineries that are underutilized. Although here the prices will be completely different.

— Now the authorities are saying that there is a surplus on the fuel market in Russia, and there is no need to introduce a ban on the export of petroleum products. According to the Minister of Energy, the market is stable and does not require additional stabilizing measures. But is this really so? If there is a significant reduction in production, will the topic of a possible export ban become relevant again?

– Yes, this is possible. The export ban is the last argument in the dispute with the companies. One of the reasons that can lead to this is the refinery going out for preventive maintenance. Every year, factories en masse go out for repairs in the summer. Something needs to be done about this. Perhaps in 2024 the government will build this schedule more strictly so that there is no physical deficit. The country’s domestic fuel consumption is growing. After the pandemic and the closure of airports in southern Russia, people began to increasingly travel by car. In summer, the demand for gasoline increases. And at the same moment, as soon as the automobile season begins, repairs at the refinery begin. Plus, agricultural machinery consumes a significant share of fuel. Diesel is partially drawn to the NWO. Therefore, this is rather a question of synchronizing the work of the refinery. But if we have enough diesel, the situation with gasoline is more complicated. Now, if at least 1-2% of production volume falls out, then fuel will have to be brought in from other regions. It turns out that logistics will become more difficult. But this is rather a problem of the companies themselves.