recession in the US may begin this year, and in the EU next – Kommersant

According to analysts from the British bank HSBC, cited by the TV channel CNBC, a recession in the United States may begin as early as the fourth quarter of this year, and in Europe in 2024. In its semi-annual outlook, HSBC believes there are already “warning signals” in a number of European economies by now. At the same time, fiscal and monetary policy, according to analysts, does not correspond to current trends in the stock and debt markets.

HSBC Asset Management chief strategic analyst Joseph Little believes that while some segments of the economy are showing recession resilience, the current imbalance points to “high risks of a recession.” At the same time, Europe shows approximately the same dynamics as the United States, albeit with some delay. “We are already experiencing something like a mild recession,” the analyst said. “And against this background, we are seeing more frequent corporate defaults.” “According to our scenario, the recession will take place approximately as in the early 1990s, the main forecast is a decline in GDP by about 1-2%,” Mr. Little believes.

Evgeniy Khvostik