RAS experts assessed the potential for economic growth in the next 15 years

The growth potential of the Russian economy in the long term (until 2035) is limited to 1%. The factors that contributed to the high rates of development earlier have been exhausted, and the stimulus measures of the budgetary, monetary and exchange rate policies are short-term. This conclusion was reached by experts from the Institute for Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the article “Russia’s Economic Development Strategy – 2035: Ways to Overcome Long-Term Stagnation”. To reverse the trend, it is necessary to look for potential based on the domestic market and invest, for example, in such sectors as agriculture, passenger transport, housing construction.

Over the past 10 years, economic growth has actually been determined by the rate of increase in exports, experts say: the average annual GDP growth was about 1%, with supplies growing by 2.5% annually. In the period 1999–2008 high rates of development were based on high investment growth – this was due to rapidly growing export earnings, which made it possible to fill demand in the conditions of a strengthening ruble. After overcoming the crisis of 2008-2009. The Russian economy reached lower growth rates, which was associated with the stagnation of foreign economic income and the exhaustion of opportunities to stimulate demand due to the weakening of the ruble.