RAS experts assessed the impact of sanctions on Russia’s plans for decarbonization

The sanctions have limited Russia’s ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This conclusion was reached by experts from the Institute for Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Vedomosti got acquainted with their report “The Impact of the Climate Agenda on the Prospects for the Development of the Russian Economy”, presented at the 27th UN Conference on Climate Change. According to the institute, Russia will not be able to implement some of the measures to decarbonize the economy due to the restrictions imposed. By 2050, CO2 emissions will decrease to 1.119 billion tons instead of 630 million tons of CO2 planned by strategic documents. Thus, Russia’s potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by about half.

Net emissions in 2019 (latest updated data) amounted to 1.5 billion tons of CO2, taking into account the absorptive capacity of forests. If Russia does not take any measures for decarbonization, the volume of emissions by 2050 will grow to almost 2 billion tons of CO2, follows from the calculations of the INP RAS. The government approved a low-carbon development strategy last fall, in which it planned to achieve carbon neutrality (the difference between emission and absorption of emissions is reduced to zero) by 2060. The implementation of the target scenario will require investments in reducing greenhouse gas emissions of about 1% of GDP annually in 2022-2030 . and up to 1.5–2% of GDP in 2031–2050, follows from the approved document. In this case, net emissions will decrease to 630 million tons, which is 60% of the 2019 level and 80% of the 1990 level.