Providing companies with personnel may become one of the main tasks of business in 2024

According to top managers and HR specialists of Russian companies, providing companies with personnel may become one of the main business tasks for the next year. At the same time, respondents interviewed by various consulting and personnel companies believe that it can be solved by increasing companies’ expenses both for hiring new and retaining current employees. As a result, according to experts, the growth of workers’ wages next year will most likely outpace the inflation rate.

At the end of 2023, the shortage of personnel turned out to be one of the main obstacles to business development, Russian companies say. According to estimates from both top managers and HR specialists, this problem will continue next year and will have to be solved by increasing the wage fund, expanding the work of recruiters and investing in the employer brand. According to a study by the online platform “Potok”, this year the majority (88%) of the companies surveyed by it faced a shortage of personnel, especially representatives of large businesses (93%). Due to the shortage of workers and the growing appetites of job seekers, 13% of companies have stopped recruiting for some positions, and 2% have abandoned the search altogether. According to alternative estimates by hh.ru, companies in the FMCG (79%), mining and processing of minerals (77%) and hotel and restaurant business (77%) most often encountered this problem. According to a survey by the consulting company Kontakt InterSearch Russia, in addition to linear positions in the market, there is also a shortage of top managers – this was stated in 74% of the companies surveyed, and most of them complained not about a quantitative, but about a qualitative shortage of managers (45%) .

Closing positions for 73% of responding companies took longer than usual, especially difficult for large companies (79%), while in the SME sector 63% of enterprises complained about the lengthening of the time frame for filling such vacancies. There was also a small proportion of those whose hiring process accelerated in the past year (6%). Similar estimates are given by hh.ru – according to their data, three out of four companies in 2023 are faced with an increase in hiring times. 70% noticed a significant increase in terms – by 6-10 days, 5% – by 2-5. Only every tenth company (15%) remained at the same level as previous years. In addition, more than a third (37%) of all employers noted an increase in staff turnover, and another 30% noted a decrease in staff loyalty.

As follows from the results of the Kontakt InterSearch Russia survey, almost two-thirds of top managers (60%) expect that retaining and motivating the best talent will remain one of the main challenges for business in the next year. HR specialists assess the situation in a similar way – 82% believe that employee retention will be the main task for HR departments, 76% call it the search for new employees.

As Rostislav Kapelyushnikov, deputy director of the Center for Labor Research, notes, these expectations may be justified – the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation will remain low if the country’s economy grows. “However, we cannot now predict the parameters of this growth,” he reminds. At the same time, says TsMAKP expert Igor Polyakov, some sectors of the Russian economy can reduce the number of employees through the introduction of automation. “Thanks to this, some employees will be released, and the average unemployment rate for the year could be 3.2–3.5%,” he notes. However, this effect can be balanced by a drop in productivity due to companies switching to less efficient equipment in the process of “adaptation” of the economy – and its compensation by expanding hiring.

So far, respondents recognize an increase in salaries and hiring-related expenses as the main tool for combating personnel shortages—65% of respondents announced such plans. Experts assess such plans as realistic – for example, according to the Center for International Labor Relations, the increase in wages next year could be 1.3–1.6% in real terms, which, however, will be lower than this year’s figure. According to Rostislav Kapelyushnikov, wages will also “grow actively, outpacing the inflation rate.” Among other popular tools for dealing with the personnel crisis were investments in the employer brand – 45% of respondents will invest in it. “In the current candidate market, the HR brand is becoming an element of the recruitment economy. White collar workers sift through offers. An employer with a weak brand and negative reviews on social networks receives significantly fewer responses and loses the loyalty of employees,” says Ekaterina Karabanova, managing partner of the HR holding Ventra. In addition, according to hh.ru, some employers are also ready to provide employees with flexible working conditions, including offering remote work (45%).

Anastasia Manuilova