Prospects outlined for the economy – Kommersant FM

The growth of the Russian economy next year will slow down by more than half, this forecast was made by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency. The country’s GDP may increase by 3% by the end of 2023, and by only 1% in 2024. Among the reasons for this dynamics, analysts named a decline in consumption and maximum capacity utilization, as well as a shortage of personnel. In addition, many of the sectors that have powered the economic recovery are already growing above their potential and historical trend.

ACRA’s forecast is more pessimistic than the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, which expects growth of 2.3% next year. The Central Bank, in turn, estimated the figure in the range from 0.5% to 1.5%.

At the same time, ACRA’s conclusions are quite justified, says leading researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences and professor at the Higher School of Economics Alexey Portansky: “In 2023, there was steady growth in the defense industry, but as far as the civilian sphere of production is concerned, the picture was worse.

Industry as a whole showed a decline in production in July-September. Even the timid growth of 1% overall is not encouraging, since the electricity, gas and steam industries decreased by 3% in September. In addition, for many industries, the deadline for replacing their machine tool fleet is approaching, which will also be a serious problem.

Meanwhile, Western countries are looking for new ways to strengthen control over Russia’s oil and gas revenues, in particular, they are going to introduce a ban on tanker sales. A number of foreign companies, under the influence of sanctions, will leave this market, opportunities for oil transportation will decrease, and interest rates will rise.

The largest state-owned companies, such as Russian Railways, AvtoVAZ, Aeroflot, Roscosmos, will experience problems. In addition, by the end of 2023, Russian regions faced a sharp reduction in financial assistance from the federal budget.”

There are other factors that could negatively affect the Russian economy, noted Oleg Komolov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Financial University: “Most experts predicted an economic decline due to sanctions and the start of the SVO. However, we see some growth even in real terms.

But we must understand that it is provided by the tension of the last free resources, and now the ceiling of economic growth has been reached, there is no labor force, there is not enough capital.

All experts talk about the need for a technological breakthrough, when more could be produced with the same resources.

If sufficient investment is not made in technological progress, we will stagnate and there will be no economic growth in the long term. We will face stagnation and production downtime.

Advanced reproduction requires technology. The question is where to get the money? The only source that can now be imagined is an additional tax on the income of the super-rich Russians. The national debt is growing; raising household taxes in such conditions is unwise. But is the state ready to infringe on the owners of capital and withdraw additional money for science, education, and medicine? It is these sectors that are currently underfunded.”

In October, the International Monetary Fund improved its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2023. He expects the country’s GDP to increase by 2.2%, compared to 1.5% in the July review.

---

Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.

Sabina Adleyba