Processing has grown in an alternate dimension
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Industrial production in the measurement of Rosstat and the Ministry of Economy, seasonally adjusted, showed negative near-zero average monthly growth rates in January and positive, but also near-zero, in February (see Kommersant on March 30). Meanwhile, according to the estimates of the CMASF, in February its volume increased by 0.6% compared to January, and in January it did not change against December. According to the center’s calculations, both mining (by 0.8%) and processing (by 0.6%) grew in February in terms of the food industry, raw material production and the production of durable goods. It should be noted that the CMASF calculations do not take into account the issue of “closed positions”, as well as “industries with volatile output dynamics, for which it is fundamentally impossible to assess the direction of the trend on a monthly level”.
Rosstat takes the average monthly indicators of 2020 as a starting point and, taking into account seasonality, fixes a virtually unchanged dynamics of industrial output starting from April 2022 (after its fall at the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine). The CMASF, having made a similar comparison with the average monthly indicators of 2019, concludes: “Weak recovery has been almost continuous since June 2022, when a local minimum of output was reached” (see chart).
The spread of estimates once again confirms that data on the dynamics of industrial production largely depend on who measures them. However, alternative indicators do not add understanding of the situation. So, according to Rosstat, the optimism of industrialists stabilized in January-February: in processing, reaching the highs since the beginning of 2020, and in production, approaching them. The March measurements of industrial optimism from the Gaidar Institute record its return to growth (after a decline in February) against the background of increased estimates of demand, output and its plans, with a zero measurement of stocks of finished products and maximum provision of industry with raw materials and components. Such a surge of optimism is unexpected against the backdrop of a decline in oil production extended until June. “We will see the impact of this measure on industry statistics from the next data slice. Both annual and monthly rates with the exception of seasonality may turn out to be in the negative zone,” Raiffeisenbank economists believe.
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