Private demand has not grown – Newspaper Kommersant No. 187 (7388) dated 10/10/2022

According to the updated monitoring of sectoral flows by the Central Bank, in September the nominal volume of incoming payments (weighted by share in GDP) conducted through the payment system was 2.5% below the average level of the second quarter of 2022. In industries focused on consumer demand, the decline was 5.1% after a decline of 1.5% in August (the entire flow then decreased by 1%). In sectors focused on domestic demand, revenue growth compared to the second quarter was recorded in the food industry, services for the provision of temporary housing and tourism. “The latter confirms a gradual change in the structure of consumption from non-food products towards services against the backdrop of a limited supply of the former,” the Central Bank notes.

As Kommersant noted, a noticeable surge in spending by citizens, according to Sberindex (purchases using Sberbank cards), after the “partial mobilization” announced on September 21, fell on air tickets (see Kommersant on September 27). In the week from September 25 to October 2, the nominal spending of citizens on goods and services increased by 2.4% in annual terms against growth of 4.4%, 4.2% and 4% in the previous three weeks with inflation of 13.7% in September. Against this background, the dynamics of purchases of non-food products continued to worsen – minus 12.2% against 12.7% a week earlier, and spending on air tickets continued to grow at a double-digit pace – 22.5% against 38.4%, respectively (see chart). The decline in demand for non-food products is also evidenced by AEB data on the sale of new cars in September, which grew by 5 thousand units over the month (9.3 thousand units in August). “The slow recovery is most likely due to mobilization,” analysts from the MMI Telegram channel say.

The dynamics of nominal weekly expenses of citizens living in cities with a population of more than 100 thousand inhabitants, as recorded by the index of the average check of the Romir holding, remains sluggish. From September 26 to October 2, compared to the previous week, they increased by 0.8%, and the average check – by 3.8%, but in the week from September 19 to 25, expenses decreased by 3.6%, and the average check – by 3%. In annual terms, spending in the reporting week increased by 10.2%, and the average bill – by 8.3%, but the main reason for this growth in Romir’s indicators is the anomalous decrease in the corresponding indicators a year ago.

Alexey Shapovalov