Prices are growing faster than trade – Newspaper Kommersant No. 155 (7356) of 08/25/2022

Growth in world trade in the second quarter slowed significantly compared to the first three months of this year, as evidenced by both the data on exports and imports of the G20 countries from the OECD, and the value of the WTO Trade Barometer, which is calculated on the basis of several leading sub-indices. Rising commodity prices are boosting the nominal volume of world imports, but overall, slowing global economic growth is having a chilling effect on trade.

The value of the “Trade barometer” of the WTO, reflecting the state of world trade before the publication of official statistics, in June amounted to exactly 100 points. This means an expansion of trading activity within the trend (a value above 100 points indicates an acceleration of its growth, below – a decrease). At the same time, this value of the index may indicate a slowdown in trade growth in the second quarter against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine, the organization points out. Trade is supported by the weakening of anti-COVID measures in China.

The export orders sub-index stood at 100.1 points, still above trend but down from May. The sub-index of automotive products turned out to be below the trend – 99 points, the indices of air freight and the turnover of electronic components also significantly decreased – to 96.9 and 95.6 points. The sub-index for agricultural raw materials, on the contrary, rose to 101 points. The best value was shown by the container transportation sub-index – 103.2 points: such an increase is associated with an increase in the turnover of goods through Chinese seaports.

According to the results of the first quarter of 2022, the volume of world trade in goods increased by 3.2% year-on-year against a decrease of 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021. In general, turnover is expected to increase by 3% this year, but the uncertainty of the forecast has increased significantly, including against the backdrop of rising inflation and the expected tightening of monetary policy in developed countries, the WTO notes.

According to the OECD, exports and imports of the G20 countries in the second quarter showed a significant slowdown in growth rates – from 4.8% and 6.2% a quarter earlier to 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively. High commodity prices accelerate trade volume in nominal terms, but the appreciation of the dollar against the currencies of developing countries has the opposite effect on it.

US exports in the second quarter increased by 10.2%, Canada – by 11% (imports increased by 2.4% and 9.8% respectively). In Asia, on the contrary, there was a decrease in trade volumes: Japan’s exports decreased by 4.9% (imports increased by 3.3%), China – by 0.4% (imports fell by 1%), South Korea – by 2.2%. % (import increased by 3.5%). In the meantime, raw material exporting countries recorded an increase in supplies: Australia – by 12.5%, Indonesia – by 12.7%, India – by 7.1%. For Russia, the OECD does not publish statistics (we recall that the customs service does not disclose it), but notes that it takes into account figures for the Russian Federation in aggregated data.

Export deliveries of the EU countries grew less significantly – by 0.3%, while imports grew by 3% following the rise in energy prices. Supplies from Germany decreased by 0.4%, from France – by 3.1%, from Italy – by 0.6%, imports of these countries increased by 4%, 0.1% and 4.1%, respectively. This trend is also confirmed by trade between the EU countries and Russia – according to Eurostat, imports from the Russian Federation increased by 78.9% in six months, while exports decreased by 30.4% over this period, to €29.8 billion.

UK exports for the second quarter grew by 6.2%, imports decreased by 1.2%, while turnover with Russia fell sharply: in June, the country imported goods and services from the Russian Federation for £ 33 million – this is 96.6% less than than the average for the year to February this year. Including fuel imports decreased from £500 million to zero. Exports from the country to Russia in June amounted to £83 million, which is 67% less than before the imposition of sanctions (deliveries include the export of pharmaceutical products that were not subject to sanctions).

Tatyana Edovina