Preferential mortgages and growth in consumption are accelerating the pace of lending – Kommersant
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According to the Bank of Russia, the volume of loans to the population increased by 529 billion rubles in July. (up to 30.5 trillion rubles), or by 1.8% (against 2.1% in June). However, this slowdown in growth is due to technical reasons – the “repackaging” of part of mortgage loans into bonds. Taking into account this factor, according to Egor Susin from Gazprombank, the volume of lending to the population grew slightly more in July, by about 2.4%.
Mortgages with state support remain the main source of accelerated growth, the volume of which grew by 12% in July (the volume of mortgages at market rates decreased by 7%). Consumer lending grew by 2% in July against growth by 1.6% in June “against the backdrop of high consumer activity and increased risk appetite of banks,” the Central Bank notes.
The growth of such activity is indirectly confirmed by Sberindex data on household spending on products and services using Sberbank cards. From 14 to 20 August in real annual terms, their growth was 10.6% against 10.1% and 12.2% in the previous two weeks. Expenses for services and catering, as well as for imported non-food products, continue to grow rapidly. By the end of August, the growth in consumption may turn out to be even greater – the weekly figures of Sberindex have been lower than the monthly ones in recent months.
As noted by the Central Bank, “the share of problem loans and overdue debts in July slightly decreased, but the quality of disbursements remains low.” The number of defaulters on loans in the first half of the year, according to the Federal Bailiffs Service, reached 17.7 million against 14.4 million a year earlier. The Central Bank notes that the increase in the key rate and the tightening of requirements for banks should cool the retail lending market.
At the same time, Bloomberg Economics estimates that retail lending momentum (an indicator of accelerating credit growth and a leading indicator of slowing consumer demand and inflation) in the Russian economy has been declining for the second month in a row (see chart). Analysts explain that the accuracy of the estimate is affected by mortgage securitization transactions, which “underestimate the growth of the mortgage portfolio, as they transfer it between the balance sheet items “loans” and “securities” of the aggregated banking sector.”
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