PPP projects have exceeded expectations

The public-private partnership (PPP) sector, as follows from the survey of the National PPP Center, ends the year with the best results in the last three years. As of December 23, 316 projects with a total investment of 702.7 billion rubles have passed commercial closure. (of which 433 billion rubles are private funds). In 2021, there were 245 projects for 503.6 billion rubles, in 2020 – 219 for 355.5 billion rubles, in pre-Covid 2019 – 267 projects for 660.6 billion rubles.

In terms of industry, PPP projects in the housing and utilities sector remain the most numerous – in 2022, 191 such initiatives were commercially closed (61% of all launched projects), 156.7 billion rubles were invested, or 22.4% of all investments. The most capital-intensive sector is transport, with a total of 20 new projects attracting 42.5% of investments (296.3 billion rubles).

The result of 2022 turned out to be twice as good as expected – back in September it was predicted that up to 150 PPP projects worth up to 370 billion rubles could go through commercial closure by the end of the year. (see Kommersant dated September 12). The prerequisites for growth began to form in the second half of the year, with an increase in the number of new initiatives since mid-summer. The maximum pace was gained in September-October, then about 90 projects were launched for a total amount of more than 300 billion rubles. (for comparison, in January-August there were 180 projects for 280 billion rubles). Next year, according to the National PPP Center, under an optimistic scenario, “it is possible to reach the level of 400 commercial closures.” With a pessimistic one, the rate of launching new projects is expected to decrease by 20-30% compared to this year’s level, especially in terms of investment volume.

Now, in total, almost 4.1 thousand PPP projects are being implemented. The volume of investments is estimated at 6 trillion rubles, of which 4.3 trillion rubles. are private investments. The stability of the PPP market in 2022 is largely ensured by anti-crisis measures: this is the ability to change the essential terms of concessions without the consent of the antimonopoly authorities (the measure has been extended to 2023), the right to revise contract prices due to the rise in the cost of building materials and conclude agreements in a number of industries without a tender. Contributes to the stabilization of the market and the implementation of the “Infrastructure Menu” and co-financing by the federal center of PPP projects in certain areas (for example, the construction of sports facilities).

Evgenia Kryuchkova