Pork available to Russians may become too expensive

While authoritative experts are predicting an imminent rise in the price of pork on the domestic market, retail chains have decided not to shelve this matter. And they are already rewriting new price tags for hams and meat on the bone. Buyers are at a loss: this meat has demonstrated price stability over the past 3-4 years. And so…

“Everything jumped up in price by 20 percent,” says a woman in the meat department. – Even minced pork became 360 ​​rubles. And no one knows what processors make it from, maybe from the tails and bones of pigs …

Indeed, over the past two days, the meat departments of retail chains are no longer recognizable. At a discount, ham has risen in price by 20-25%. If quite recently it cost 250 rubles per kilogram, today you will not find cheaper than three hundred. This is for a promotion that does not happen every day and not in every store. And in free sale – 360-370 rubles take it out and put it down. Neck 450-470 rubles, brisket on the bone – 260 rubles.

Now the Russians will have to moderate their appetites a little.

The reasons for the sudden and sharp rise in the price of pork are not yet entirely clear and convincing for a simple buyer.

In the first half of this year, exports of products increased by 86%, in 2023 it can reach a record 230,000 tons. Which gives grounds to some experts to explain the increase in the price of pork in the domestic market precisely by record exports.

However, the physical volumes of supplies abroad do not exceed 10% of the total pork production and cannot have such a great impact on our domestic prices.

Then what else? We can talk about the collapsed exchange rate of the ruble, which led to an increase in production costs. But this industry is one of the few that fully covers the domestic needs of Russians. And even allows itself to increase export deliveries.

We do not import it and do not pay dollars or euros for it.

The cost of feed grain, thanks to the record grain harvest last year, is 13-15 rubles per kilogram – almost a penny. The increase in the price of pork cannot be attributed to the fodder base either.

Experts have other “relevant factors”. For example, during the holidays and the established warm weather, the demand for pork increased sharply. Although on hot days you want ice cream or cold kvass more than barbecue.

They also say that large agricultural holdings have changed their tactics. Previously, pork was sold to processors in live weight, but now in half carcasses or pieces. For this option, as an additional service, they charge money, which is transferred to the buyer’s pocket.

Over the past 3-4 years, pork has probably been the most affordable meat, and we are used to ham for a 250-ruble share. You can make minced meat from it, and already from minced meat any dish for all occasions: even cutlets, even dumplings, even stuffed peppers.

But even in this period, all the same factors were present as today: inflation, hot summers, the desire of Russians to have picnics in nature. But then pork did not rise in price, and now for some reason by 25-30%. And even the State Duma started talking about rising prices.

Doctor of Economic Sciences Dmitry Valigursky says that the development of the pig breeding industry is legally limited by the Rosselkhoznadzor. Fearing outbreaks of African swine fever, he forbids personal subsidiary farms and farmers to keep pigs, where supposedly there is no veterinary control that is in large agricultural holdings. The emphasis is on large farms, and when there is no competition among producers, the monopolists can dictate their terms.

However, some analysts are inclined to believe that pig farmers, surrounded by inflation and economic sanctions, are tired of maintaining “all-round defense” and stable prices for products. And they decided to restore the former price proportions with chicken.

It has long been noticed that in the “white meat” segment, pork competes with poultry meat. Recently, they have almost equaled in price, and sometimes chicken even takes the lead. According to Rosstat, today it costs an average of 196 rubles per kilogram, but there are also 230-250.

Traditionally, pork has always been 50% more expensive than chicken. Which is quite logical. For pigs, care is completely different, and the cost of growing them is more expensive. It would be time, as they say, and honor to know, to make up for lost profits. Not all of them, pig farmers, keep prices “on a leash” …

Apparently, this is one of the main reasons for the rise in prices.