Political scientist Makarkin appreciated Russia’s refusal from the grain deal: problems with Erdogan

The President of Turkey, apparently considered that he had made too strong a roll towards the Russian Federation

Political scientist Alexei Makarkin, in a conversation with MK, admitted that he did not expect a positive decision on the resumption of the grain deal after the negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Turkey. “There are two points here. The first one is conditions. Erdogan cannot give the guarantees required by Russia, it is not in his power on all counts, this is the problem of the West. Russia, on the other hand, proceeds from the fact that all indicators should be made public, with dates – when exactly SWIFT for Rosselkhozbank will be unlocked, when sanctions on Russian fertilizers and food will be lifted, etc.

And the second point is the problem of general trust. There was no trust between Russia and the West, and then there was also the problem of trust with Erdogan. It’s a difficult situation for him. Before the elections (in May 2023 – “MK”.) Russia actually supported Erdogan, and after the elections, he began to move away from Russia. You can talk a lot about Erdogan’s special position, his role in world politics, his desire to be considered an independent player, his ambitions, but all the same, Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic bloc. Of course, on many issues, Erdogan has difficult relations with the United States, but on many issues they are close… In addition, Erdogan apparently considered that he had made too strong a tilt towards Russia, and began to equalize this tilt. Let’s remember the symbolic step of handing over to Ukraine prisoners from the terrorist “Azov” banned in Russia, let’s remember that Erdogan increased the emphasis in his speeches on the fact that he does not recognize Russia’s ownership of Crimea, etc., etc. Probably, with trust here, too, it is more difficult than before. So if the first moment is reduced to the second, there was no need to wait for a breakthrough result from the meeting, ”the expert explained.

What’s next?

“Trust between Russia and Turkey is a floating thing,” recalls Mr. Makarkin. “What has not happened in recent years in our relations, including such that it would seem that this trust should have completely collapsed. But somehow everything keeps afloat, there is some kind of communication, there are some bursts, which sometimes give rise to great hopes, and the word “ally” is again used in relation to Turkey and it is said that Russia and Turkey have historically always had good relations … Now they are going to canonize Suvorov, he could tell a lot about the constant good relations between Russia and Turkey as a participant in two Russian-Turkish wars,” the political scientist noted. But, he stressed, Russia and Turkey have common economic interests, there are interests in the nuclear sector, and “here Erdogan may well be an independent player, and Russia, probably , there is no interest in completely closing the Turkish topic, so there are prospects for the development of relations here.”

What can not be said about the grain deal – the further, the less likely it will be resumed, Mr. Makarkin believes: since here it is necessary to negotiate with the West, and with the West “for many reasons it does not work out and in the foreseeable future, apparently, will not work”, no prospects are currently visible, despite “different games and different plans”, which are likely to take place. According to the expert, Ukraine and the West will look for detours, routes for the export of Ukrainian grain, they are already being sought.