Poland called for the destruction of Nord Stream 2: what will the dismantling of the gas pipeline lead to

“Everything that harms Russia is beneficial to Poland”

While in Kyiv, Polish President Andrzej Duda called for the dismantling of Nord Stream 2. Destroy in the truest sense of the word. The statement was made just on the eve of the suspension of the transit of “blue fuel” through Nord Stream 1, which will take place from August 31 to September 2, 2022. Why is Poland tightening its rhetoric, what benefits can the country get if Nord Stream 2 is destroyed, will Europe freeze this winter? Artem Deev, head of the analytical department of AMarkets, told about this to MK.

– How can you assess the appeal of the President of Poland? Does this mean that the country is set for a confrontation with Germany?

– Poland has long and purposefully pursued its policy in opposition to Germany, the first economy of the Eurozone. Firstly, Poland is a traditional anti-Russian locomotive of the EU (the government of the country often expresses what the European Commission cannot voice). Secondly, Poland has its own interests in the struggle with Russia (whether it is the struggle for coal supplies, since there is a strong coal lobby in the Sejm of Warsaw, or interests in certain territories of Ukraine, Poland has long wanted to annex certain regions of Western Ukraine). To understand Poland’s policy towards Russia, it is enough to look at the position of the government of this country over the past hundred years. Nothing has fundamentally changed: everything that harms Russia is beneficial to Poland, one way or another.

– Assess the likelihood of such a scenario.

– The dismantling of Nord Stream 2 is hardly technically possible. Firstly, these works must again be approved by the European Commission, environmentalists, and will hit the commercial interests of Berlin and the country’s large oil and gas business. Secondly, no one in Europe doubts that Warsaw’s policy is often based on how exactly the coal mining enterprises in Poland will benefit (our country also supplies coal to Germany, this is especially true now. in the context of the energy crisis). Thirdly, Poland is trying to play its own game in relations with Kyiv.

– If not dismantling, then what?

– An alternative to Germany’s $5 billion investment in NS-2 is to freeze the project (until winter comes, probably). So much, according to the minimum calculations, is the investment of Europe (Germany, in the first place) in the construction of the gas pipeline. But there is no need to draw serious conclusions from the statements of the Polish Sejm – this is often a demonstration of one’s loyal position towards the United States or Kyiv. Business, although dependent on politics, knows how to count money, especially in Germany.