Paris refuses to withdraw army from Niger

The military in Niger, who came to power as a result of the July 26 coup, announced on August 4 the denunciation of military agreements with France. “Given the position of Paris regarding the situation in our country, the National Council for the Defense of the Motherland has decided to stop cooperation in the field of security and defense,” the leader of the junta, Abdurahman Tchiani, said in his televised address on the night of August 4.

He added that he would soon send an official diplomatic notice on this matter to Paris. The French Foreign Ministry rejected this proposal, officially declaring that only the legitimate leadership has the right to break the military agreements. On the same day, the Niger authorities blocked the broadcasting of the French channels France24 and RFI in the country, and also recalled their ambassadors from France, the United States, Nigeria and Togo.

Prior to this, the rebel authorities had suspended the export of uranium and gold to France. The country provides up to 17% of the raw materials used by the French for energy production, uranium is mainly mined by the French Orano mining company, whose spokesman assured Le Monde newspaper on August 2 that while the extraction of ore from the deposits continues, despite the coup.

Niamey plays one of the key roles in the West’s fight against international terrorist organizations in West Africa. The extremist group Boko Haram operates in neighboring Nigeria and Chad, and branches of the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda (all of which are banned in the Russian Federation) along the Niger border with Mali and Burkina Faso. According to the Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS, which includes 15 states of the region), more than 1,800 terrorist attacks were registered in this part of the region in six months, with 4,600 people killed. To combat extremists, the largest French air base in the Sahel (about 1,500 troops) and a unit from the 409th US Air Expeditionary Group (about 1,000 people) are deployed in Niger.

The day before, on August 3, ousted President Mohamed Bazum wrote an article in The Washington Post in which he called on the United States and other states to help him restore constitutional order, adding that if the putschists remain in power, the entire Central Sahel region will be under the influence of Russia represented by PMC “Wagner”. He added that the military authorities of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali want to replace French and US military units in the region with Russian mercenaries. According to Bazum, thanks to the military assistance of Paris and Washington in his country during his presidency (since April 2021), it has become safer, and attacks by Islamist groups have almost stopped.

On August 4, the Kremlin stated that the intervention of extra-regional forces is unlikely to change the situation in Niger for the better. “Moscow is concerned about the tension that is now emerging in the region. We continue to stand for the return of the situation to the constitutional course without any damage and, most importantly, without a threat to human lives,” Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian president, told reporters.

On July 30, at an emergency ECOWAS summit in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, the leaders of its member countries threatened to use military force if the rebels in Niamey did not restore constitutional order and release the ousted president within a week. On August 2, the chiefs of staff of the armies of the ECOWAS member countries began the joint development of an intervention plan, and, as of August 4, according to RFI sources, the document coordinating the possible actions of the allies in Niger is almost ready.

In addition to the threat of intervention, the ECOWAS countries closed land and air borders, froze the country’s assets in a regional bank, and stopped energy transactions with Niger. The authorities of the USA, France and the EU also suspended the provision of financial assistance (about $2 billion annually). At the same time, two days later, on August 2, Burkina Faso and Mali, where the government also changed as a result of the coup, warned that military intervention against Niger would be tantamount to declaring war on these countries. At the same time, the junta in Guinea also expressed support for the new leadership in Niamey.

A Vedomosti source, who works for one of the security companies in West Africa and regularly contacts and instructs the military in the region, notes that “on the ground” the ECOWAS operation plan, no matter how successful it looks, will be very difficult to implement. “The question is that if the operation starts, it’s not the rebels, but the country as a whole that can actively begin to resist, being consolidated by the invasion of foreign military, especially since the people of Niger historically do not have sympathy for the same Benin and Nigerians,” the source said. Vedomosti.

With aggressive rhetoric and the threat of the use of force against Niger, ECOWAS wants to split the current ruling group of the country, provoke an action of forces loyal to the ousted president, Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes. Although, according to the expert, a significant part of society is tired of 13 years of ruling by the ruling Party for Democracy and Socialism, and anti-French sentiments are strong in the country, the leader of the junta Tchiani does not have unconditional support in the army and in the country. “His opponents do not yet see him as a strong political party and assume that the threat may lead to the removal of Tchiani by the military and will not be needed without intervention,” the expert believes.

At the same time, Lukyanov believes, the forces of ECOWAS and France are not aimed at conducting a large-scale military operation in Niger. We can talk about a special operation with relatively small forces, given the military presence of the French and American military contingent in the country. “The goal of the ECOWAS operation may be to eliminate the top leadership of the junta and some military commanders from among the forces sympathizing with them, in particular, from the presidential guard,” the expert believes.

According to Lukyanov, the withdrawal of the French contingent from Niger will also mean a weakening of the US position in the region. Although the African direction is not a priority for Washington, they do not intend to lose control over it, the expert believes: “A significant part of the operations against the forces of international terrorism and intelligence in the vast expanse of the Sahara and North Africa are tied to the infrastructure in Niger. Under the current conditions, the Americans want to prevent the transfer of power in Niger to those forces that would somehow flirt with Moscow or play the card of Russian-American rivalry in public politics.”

“No matter how dissatisfied it is with the possible new loss of a sphere of influence after the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, France is unlikely to decide on direct intervention without the technical, organizational and diplomatic support of the United States, which could bring this issue through the UN Security Council as a peacekeeping operation. ”, – Pavel Timofeev, head of the department of European political studies at IMEMO RAS, believes.

Paris by all means does not want to look like an imperialist and colonialist, it consistently denies the term “Françafrique”, this would break its criticism of the actions in Africa of Russia and China, continues Timofeev. Most likely, if the intervention of Niger’s neighbors starts, France can provide logistical and technical assistance to the country’s neighbors in it, but the political residue from this will still be negative for the French on the continent, the expert says. “France will try to the last to participate in solving the problem indirectly – by informational pressure and creating prerequisites for negotiations between the rebels and the ousted president, will use force only for very good reasons and having no other way out,” concludes Timofeev.