Orientalist Dolgov predicted asymmetrical responses by the Houthis to attacks by the Western coalition

The military operation of the United States and Great Britain against the Yemeni Houthis could result in terrorist attacks and sabotage in the European Union. Leading researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Boris Dolgov, did not rule out such a scenario. The expert gave MK a forecast for escalation in the Middle East: the transformation of the conflict into a big war is unlikely, Iran will not join the Houthis. And, as always, the Europeans will have to take the rap.

The military operation of the Western coalition against the Houthis in Yemen has become a serious round of escalation in the Middle East. Over the past night, the US-British coalition carried out 73 strikes on Houthi targets. Five Yemeni soldiers killed, six wounded, the country launches mobilization. This information was announced by a Houthi representative.

However, the operation is unlikely to develop into a full-fledged regional conflict, says Boris Dolgov, leading researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

– This is an escalation, an expansion of the conflict. The military operation of the Americans and the British with attacks on Houthi targets, from which they attacked ships in the Red Sea, can be called a continuation of the conflict that is taking place in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Hamas movement. But I don’t think this could develop into a full-scale war in the Middle East. There will be a confrontation between the Western coalition and Yemen. But I do not foresee the inclusion of other Arab countries in the conflict,” predicted Boris Dolgov.

The expert noted that Saudi Arabia has already announced its intention not to get involved in the conflict. The only Middle Eastern country that openly supported the forces of the Western coalition is Bahrain. But he has nowhere to go – the largest US military base is located on its territory.

Will Iran at least come to the aid of the Houthis? The scientist called Tehran’s direct involvement in the conflict with Washington and London unlikely.

Although Iran supports Yemen, this support is declared by the Iranian authorities as diplomatic, humanitarian, political and economic. Tehran denies providing military assistance to the Houthis. True, representatives of Saudi Arabia previously spoke about such assistance. Well, the United States has been saying for years that the Yemeni Houthis are nothing more than an Iranian proxy structure. According to the orientalist, this is far from the truth. And there are many reasons for this: from geographical to religious.

With geography, everything is simple – just look at the map. Iraq and KSA are located between Iran and Yemen by land. In 2015, the Saudis initiated (not without the support of Washington, of course) a military operation against Yemen. Since then, according to experts, the Saudis have been checking all cargo that tries to enter the jurisdiction of Sanaa.

Religion is more complicated – both the Yemeni Houthis and the Iranians are Shiites. That’s why Iran supports Yemen. But the Shiites are different from the Shiites, so the support is not strong enough to go to war with the United States for the sake of it.

“The Houthi movement proclaims the principles of Zaydism, one of the directions of Shiite Islam,” Boris Dolgov explained the religious subtleties. “Zaydism is represented by approximately a third of the population of Yemen.” Iran also supports the Houthis. This is logical, since Zaydism is a trend in the Shiite direction of Islam, and Iran, as you know, is a Shiite country. But it is impossible to say unequivocally that the Houthis are a proxy or a structure fully regulated, supported or manipulated by Tehran.

Another reason why Iran is unlikely to dare to stand up for Yemen is the difference in the military potentials of Tehran and Washington, the orientalist emphasized.

In turn, the Houthi movement itself has already become a full-fledged force in the Middle East region. So the big question is whether they need any outside help at all.

– The Houthi movement has its own armed formations. During the confrontation between Israel and Hamas, the Houthis harshly, uncompromisingly and unequivocally supported the latter and began to strike ships in the Red Sea that were in one way or another connected with Israel. This movement has its own goals in Yemen and the entire region. The Houthi movement is a new actor in the Arab-Muslim world. Quite radical, harshly and loudly demonstrating its presence in the region and its position in relation to the events in the war between Israel and Hamas, Dolgov emphasized.

It is difficult to predict how long the US and UK operation in Yemen will last. However, the escalation on the southern edge of the Arabian Peninsula could unexpectedly continue almost anywhere in the world.

“Iran and its allies—the Hezbollah movement and Shiite formations in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine—may launch asymmetrical attacks,” the analyst suggested. “These are actions of sabotage groups against targets of the United States and its allies.” This could include missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in the Arab world. This may result in the actions of radical and terrorist groups in other countries, including European ones.

Embassies, representative offices and even individual citizens may be under attack. First of all, citizens are not even of the United States, but of Israel, wherever they are, the scientist believes. That is, the war in the Middle East can take a hybrid form and spread around the world like a terrorist octopus.

Another risk factor is the protest movement of the Arab population in Western Europe. In the fall, they took to the streets of European capitals in support of the Palestinians, now they will go in defense of the Houthis. This is the second “gift” from the Americans to the leaders of the European Union countries after Ukraine. It’s unlikely that they will be happy.

– Now a new wave of not only anti-Israeli, but also anti-American sentiments in Europe is quite possible. But we must keep in mind that the Houthi movement is a Shiite branch of Islam. And in the countries of Western Europe, the Arab-Muslim diaspora is mainly represented by Sunnis. However, a military-political and ideological motive may prompt them to take active actions, including terrorist ones, Dolgov predicted.

The scientist noted: for European countries such a prospect is completely unnecessary. But for now their authorities are acting in line with US policy. And while support for Washington’s policy in Europe remains, the citizens of these countries are at risk.

“In the event of massive demonstrations or radical acts in Western European countries, this situation may change,” the orientalist concluded.