“Normal professional work”: Nabiullina was called the main destroyer of Western sanctions

Politico considers the head of the Central Bank to be the savior of the Russian economy

Elvira Nabiullina managed to largely disrupt the West’s sanctions plans against Russia – in this, experts interviewed by MK agree with Politico’s assessment. As the American publication notes, the head of the Central Bank, through her professional actions, “managed to prevent the consequences of unprecedented restrictions designed to empty the Kremlin’s treasury.” However, how close to the truth is this thesis, which came quite unexpectedly from a camp “unfriendly” to Moscow, in reality?

Politico has published its traditional annual list of 28 people who will “shape the political life of Europe” in 2024. The participants were divided into three categories: “doers,” “dreamers,” and “disruption.” Elvira Nabiullina took first place in the third group, where Politico included individuals who, in its opinion, radically changed an entire sphere, industry or profession. As the publication writes, Nabiullina is the “main technocrat” in the Russian echelons of power, whose “aggressive monetary policy has repeatedly saved the ruble and kept the country’s economy afloat.” Politico recalls that Euromoney magazines in 2015 and The Banker in 2017 named Nabiullina “central banker of the year.” But those were relatively “peaceful” times, and now they are completely different…

Catalan journalist and politician Carles Puigdemont, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock and others also fell into the “destroyers” category. By the way, in the “dreamers” group, the first place was taken by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky. Politico compares him to Winston Churchill, Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela, who were able to “single-handedly change the course of history.” Meanwhile, we are interested in the assessment of Elvira Nabiullina specifically, and the extent to which it is shared by experts.

Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Center for Economic Policy Research, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University:

“The English word disruption has a slightly more complex meaning than “destroyer.” Rather, we can talk about “undermining.” For example, in the sense that an innovative electric car undermines the market position of a car with an internal combustion engine. Indeed, neither theorists nor practitioners expected the decisions on various aspects that took place in February-March 2022 from the Central Bank. Today it is already generally accepted (and I have heard this many times from foreign colleagues) that the Russian regulator then took measures that largely neutralized the sanctions plans of the West. Nevertheless, the Central Bank is only part of the entire structure of Russian government. And in this case, he acted within the framework of his powers, in his “clearing”. This a priori could not lead to any global, fantastic consequences on the scale of the entire economy of the country. The steps of the Central Bank made it possible to contain the onslaught of sanctions on one of the fronts – financial. In general, this is normal professional work; I don’t see any super-heroism from the leadership of the Central Bank. As for Politico, this media organization specializes in political journalism and does not particularly delve into economic issues.”

Nikita Maslennikov, leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies:

“We are talking about recognizing Nabiullina’s obvious merits, even through clenched teeth. For the West – with a minus sign, for us – with a plus sign. It is clear that the head of the Central Bank, through her decisions, prevented the plans of the gentlemen sanctioners from coming true, adjusting monetary policy in such a way that Russia did not ultimately lose its state finances and avoided serious problems with the budget. A whole set of actions followed (in tandem with the Ministry of Finance): here was an increase in the key rate to 20% in the spring of 2022, and the fact that exporters were obliged to sell 80% of foreign currency earnings, and other steps, as a result of which the ruble strengthened by the summer to 50-60 for a dollar. And this year, the Central Bank responded quite adequately to the acceleration of inflation, raising the key rate from 7% to 15%. Plus, the regulator called on the government to determine a list of priority projects (from airplanes and robots to ports and railways) related to import substitution and ensuring technological sovereignty, and credited at preferential rates. Which is what was done. We haven’t seen such coordination of the activities of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank for a very long time; this is a kind of new quality of interaction that is important for the entire financial system of the country.”

Alexey Vedev, head of the Center for Structural Research at RANEPA:

“I only partly agree with Politico’s assessment. Yes, in February-March 2022, the Central Bank acted decisively and absolutely competently, managing to extinguish the currency and financial panic. You can’t argue with that. However, later the Central Bank allowed the devaluation of the ruble, which, in turn, accelerated consumer prices. After which he had to raise the interest rate several times, which has already slowed down and will continue to slow down economic growth. As with any other complex activity, there are pros and cons. I don’t see any clear positive results from the actions of the Central Bank and its head.”