Nikita Krichevsky agreed with the dollar exchange rate forecasts: “It will be 130”

“Sooner or later, the dollar, of course, will be at 130, although not when Igor Lipsits predicts it,” famous economist Nikita Krichevsky explained why forecasting the dollar exchange rate is a thankless task, and those who try to hype it up become memes .

So, should we really expect a rise in the value of the US currency by another third by the end of 2023? Moreover, US President Biden generally spoke about the dollar at 200 (although this was in March 2022), so against his background, the forecast of ex-HSE professor Igor Lipsits looks quite optimistic.

The other day, in his TG channel, Lipsits said that, in his opinion, by the end of 2023, the US currency will strengthen to 130 rubles per ruble. However, this assumption is valid provided that there is no more force majeure, for which, like other natural resources, Russia is now famous.

To avoid this, the Russian authorities will need to exert administrative pressure on export-oriented domestic companies for a stable influx of foreign currency. But this is difficult to do due to sanctions, the analyst concluded.

Naturally, hype immediately rose. Everyone remembers the August jump of the “green” price to almost 100, and how then the ruble barely recovered to 90+. We just sighed calmly – and here we go again. Yes, few things interest our citizens more than finding out the price of a dollar. And the most famous predictions on this matter went down in history.

The most famous meme belongs to Yulia Tseplyaeva and dates back to 2014: “I really feel sorry for people who buy a dollar for 35 rubles! They’ll just lose their money!”

Since then, few people have risked exposing themselves in this way, be it in one direction or the other.

“Igor Lipsits lives abroad, his task, as I believe, is to remind about himself and hype him up. Nothing else. But you know… he’s right! – Nikita Krichevsky exclaims. – After all, one day the exchange rate will really be 130 rubles per dollar. I remember that a long time ago there was an expert who predicted default every year. And in 1998 it happened. Which allowed this expert to be proud of himself. As one Nobel laureate in economics said: everything is predicted except the price. The dollar exchange rate is the same price. That’s why I personally never make forecasts. Because those who do this deal a severe blow to their reputation. They simply point their fingers at the sky, although sooner or later some forecasts, especially regarding the dollar exchange rate, come true. They told us about 120 rubles per dollar, and about 200… In fact, no one knows what the dollar exchange rate will be next year, no one even knows what it will be tomorrow. Six months ago on my radio I said that the dollar would be 100. But it was less than 80. A month ago, for personal needs, I bought dollars for 97 rubles. Then they started costing 93. But I wasn’t worried. Because after two weeks they were already 98.

– Will the state decide to regulate the dollar exchange rate administratively, in order, among other things, to save the population from nervous breakdowns as a result of these swings?

– There are many countries in the world with developing economies that are setting a prescriptive course. This reassures the people, primarily producers, who can then at least calculate something, the same loans, for example. Because it’s a kind of stability. One of such states is China. The yuan exchange rate, as is known, depends solely on the decisions of the Communist Party. This has been happening for thirty years now. Time passes, the competitiveness of their economy begins to decline, and suddenly bam – the yuan devalues. Thirty years of the same thing. Since China began expanding into the world market. Although the same thirty years ago they bought aluminum buckets from us.

– And now, to put it mildly, we ourselves are driving resources to China at dumping prices, and in return we receive friendly yuan, which is not a fact that we really need.

– What makes you think that we are driving something there for very cheap? There is an intergovernmental agreement on the supply of oil, gas, and timber. Yes, prices are cheaper there because these are long-term contracts. But they are still beneficial for us. Because this is also stability. China is happy with this. But we are not left at a loss either. What will the situation be like when these contracts begin to be extended? No one knows this, and no one will say yet. As for the price ceiling, if we really adhere to the ceiling in Europe, then deliveries to Asia in the spring were over 80. Here are your sanctions and here is your ceiling. This was six months ago.

– However, up to half of the foreign exchange earnings in Russia comes in rubles, another part – in not very convertible currencies of the so-called friendly countries. How much do we need this?

– This is good for Russia. It’s probably bad for the exchange rate. But nothing can be changed here, especially since the question of what currency to sell the same oil for export is regulated from above.

– Why doesn’t the Central Bank introduce a policy dollar exchange rate?

– This is a question that worries everyone. And there is no answer to it. There is only an assumption that this is not being done in the interests of domestic speculators, that is, bankers. They are quite happy with what is happening now. And so that they feel good and continue to earn money, I think this is what is being done. After all, all our largest banks are connected in one way or another with the Central Bank.

– How much can a dollar be worth if a directive exchange rate is finally introduced?

– Here you need to sit down and count. No one can tell offhand. Don’t believe anyone who says 100 or 120, a clear calculation is required. We need to focus on imports, exports, and the budget. In China, for example, it is calculated to hundredths.