New buildings are not for sale – Kommersant FM
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The volume of unsold housing in new buildings has reached a three-year record. It exceeds 70 million square meters at the end of the year – this is almost 5.5 million more than a year ago, Dom.RF analysts calculated, RBC reviewed the study. More than half of the total area for which a buyer could not be found is accounted for by properties put up for sale. The remaining 27 million square meters are for projects that have not yet entered the market.
Why did this situation arise? And what will happen to prices? Artem Tsogoev, a member of the board of directors of the investment platform Simple Estate, believes that the volume has accumulated due to the high pace of housing commissioning and preferential mortgages:
“Starting from the second half of 2020, new projects were actively launched, and sales were good thanks to preferential mortgages. On this wave of optimism, developers opened sales in new projects. But recently, as we know, the situation has changed somewhat. The conditions for preferential mortgages are becoming stricter; a fairly large amount of money came from the sale of secondary housing, but this trickle is now gradually stopping due to expensive mortgages.
There are currently some problems with financing new purchases, but this does not apply to all regions. For example, it takes approximately five years to sell out new buildings in Krasnodar or Samara. And there are other regions, for example, Moscow, where this period is approaching three years.
Could this market situation lead to lower prices? In theory, of course, this is possible. The problem is that we now have a stimulating factor in the demand for new buildings – preferential mortgages. If the extension happens, it will be quite difficult to talk about reducing prices. Stability will be supported by preferential mortgages and the demand that it generates. If preferential mortgages are cancelled, which I personally doubt, then, of course, the prerequisites for a reduction in prices may arise.”
In general, this situation looks threatening for the economy, especially since there may be even more unsold housing than indicated in statistics, noted Oleg Samoilov, vice-president of the Russian Guild of Realtors:
“The real volume of unsold housing in apartment buildings is even greater, because a couple of years ago the Ministry of Construction, in order to improve statistical indicators, began to take into account the volumes that are being built in individual housing construction.
The situation is extremely threatening, I am watching with alarm and at the same time with great interest what our financial authorities will do. They are now in zugzwang: on the one hand, the preferential mortgage program, which is inflating the price bubble, should have been closed long ago, but, on the other hand, it cannot be stopped, because demand will immediately disappear. In addition, let’s not forget that this will lead to a collapse in prices, and then the banks will suffer wild losses amounting to trillions.”
Last year was a record year for the volume of housing commissioned; it exceeded 102 million square meters. In 2023, the Ministry of Construction expects this level to be repeated.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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