Named the reasons for the decision to take a trillion rubles from the FNB of Russia

It was decided to cover the federal budget deficit with funds from the National Wealth Fund, which is considered to be the “main moneybox” of the country. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin instructed to allocate 1 trillion rubles from the NWF in 2022. Taking into account the fact that in the past few months the strategic reserve, which was considered inviolable, is literally melting before our eyes, several reasonable questions arise: what is the reason for this, how much is necessary, and what will be left of it in the end?

As of October 1, the total volume of the NWF amounted to 10.792 trillion rubles; in September it decreased by 1.078 trillion rubles.

Last week, the head of the Ministry of Finance Siluanov announced the intention of the authorities to spend money from the NWF: “The end of the year is coming soon, our main expenses are carried out at the end of the year. Our task is to use the funds of the NWF to the maximum for development, for infrastructure projects.”

At the same time, according to government estimates, the state treasury deficit in both 2022 and 2023 will be about 2% of GDP, or 3 trillion rubles. Earlier, Mishustin claimed that the authorities were going to cover it mainly through borrowing in the domestic financial market, but plans have changed. About how the current tactics are justified, we asked the leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies, economist Nikita Maslennikov.

– Absolutely justified. The decision was expected, everything was moving towards this, as evidenced by at least a recent transparent hint from Siluanov.

We have a monthly budget deficit for the fourth month in a row. The main expenses are related to meeting the needs of the special operation and partial mobilization. About 600 billion rubles will be spent on the annual maintenance of the mobilized, given that allowances of 195 thousand per month are provided for each. Some part must be paid now, and some must be reserved.

Plus, with the onset of cold weather, in two or three weeks, people will not be able to live in tents, which means that at least some prefabricated structures will be needed. These are also potential costs. Finally, budget expenditures in December are traditionally two to three times higher than the annual average. They are growing exponentially. It is necessary to close construction contracts, government contracts, part of the federal targeted investment program, and much more.

– In September, information appeared that the deficit is also planned to be covered by raw material exporters – oil and gas companies, as well as producers of coal and fertilizers. How realistic is this?

– Well, yes, the government plans to raise export duties for them and the rate of the mineral extraction tax (MET). But we are talking about 2023, when these measures should bring the treasury about 1.4 trillion rubles. But what about funding this year? And do not be confused: these sources are not focused on covering the deficit, but on replenishing revenue receipts, taking into account additional natural rent.

– It turns out that the government has nowhere to take money from the NWF today?

– Of course. This year, the budget rule has been suspended, and all additional oil and gas revenues are used to cover current budget expenditures. That is, they do not solve the problem of scarcity – either conceptually or practically.

True, the state still has the opportunity to borrow on domestic markets, but it is fraught with a number of risks: firstly, the OFZ yield is relatively low, Thirdly, if we take 1 trillion rubles directly from the economy, this will have a negative impact on business activity.

– But at such a rate of spending, as this year, little will be left of the “main egg” soon, isn’t it?

– Actually, the National Welfare Fund exists just to finance the budget deficit and the Pension Fund. This is its statutory function. In addition, there is a threshold of 7% of GDP, which limits further spending of the Fund’s resources.

So it will not completely disappear physically, although its volume will be reduced. Next year, when the world is likely to be hit by a global crisis, the government will almost certainly turn to this source of funding quite often. But the revenues to the National Welfare Fund may well decrease, since the price situation in the hydrocarbon market does not potentially portend much profit.