Named the main obstacle to the strengthening of the ruble: “The treasury must be replenished”

“It was necessary to buy currency in the summer of 2022, now there is no point”

In May, the ruble will slowly and steadily weaken under the influence of fundamental factors. First of all, because of the risks of a further increase in the budget deficit. As for the current strengthening of the rate to 80.5 per dollar and 88.3 per euro, then, according to experts, there is no need to talk about any long-term trend.

On the eve of the long weekend, the Russian currency exchange rate sharply strengthened its positions on the Moscow Exchange against the dollar and the euro, which dropped to lows since early April. Currencies lost, respectively, 1.05 and 1.83 rubles.

The trading volume of “American” with delivery “tomorrow” reached 166 billion rubles – the maximum value since January. As a result, the rates left the narrow corridor in which they have been trading for the last three weeks. This happened against the backdrop of the end of the tax period in Russia: in April, companies had to pay more than 2 trillion rubles to the treasury.

“In general, this year the situation with the exchange rate dynamics is not as obvious as in the past, when everyone was waiting for the weakening of the ruble, which for months kept in the anomalous corridor of 55-60 per dollar, for itself. The only question was when this would happen, – says financial analyst Sergei Drozdov. – Now the ruble reacted primarily to two events: firstly, to the end of the tax period, secondly (and most importantly) to the statement of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, who did not rule out a rate increase in the foreseeable future.

It was a classic exchange scenario, when the national currency exchange rate goes up at the moment under the influence of verbal intervention. If the ruble strengthens, then not for long and insignificantly. Maximum, up to the level of 75-76 per dollar. And, of course, those prices for foreign currency that we saw last year will no longer exist. If someone wanted to buy the dollar and the euro, they should have done it in the summer of 2022, now there is no point.”

As for oil quotes, today, according to Drozdov, they do not affect the exchange rate in any way. In 2021, there was such a correlation, since foreign players were present in the Russian markets – foreign exchange, debt and stock, whose share exceeded 50%. Among them were large American funds, for example, Goldman Sacks and Black Rocks. They acted mainly according to speculative schemes: they bought currency on a positive (including oil) market conditions, and sold it on the slightest negative. Naturally, because of this, the markets were in a fever, and the ruble immediately weakened.

“The main fundamental obstacle to the strengthening of the ruble can be considered the federal budget deficit,” says Drozdov. – The treasury must be replenished under any circumstances, and the reduction in oil and gas revenues and the simultaneous increase in the expenditure part of the budget absolutely does not contribute to this. We should not forget about the negative geopolitical background, which puts additional pressure on the ruble.”