Named the consequences of the suspension of gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream

“Russia may lose the European market”

Gazprom announced the suspension of gas supplies via the Nord Stream pipeline. The reason was the malfunctions found during maintenance at the Portovaya compressor station, the press service of Gazprom reports. Rostekhnadzor issued a warning to the company, and the company itself sent a letter to Siemens about the need to repair the pipe. What is the risk of stopping the last remaining turbine and how it will affect Russia’s relations with the rest of the world – we talked about this with an expert.

Commenting on the situation with the suspension of the Nord Stream turbine, Alexei Makarkin, First Vice President of the Center for Political Studies, sees the development of the situation in the following way:

“This is a new stage of the “gas war” between Russia and Europe. That is, the confrontation continues and intensifies. Here you can expect everything. Moreover, not only in the gas, but also in the oil sector.

The G7 has just announced the possibility of setting a price ceiling for Russian oil. In response, Russia says that if there is such a ceiling, it will be unprofitable to sell, which means we will not sell anything. And gas is also fraught with very serious consequences.

Here the main factor that no one can accurately predict is what kind of winter it will be in Europe. Now the Europeans are actively filling gas storages, keeping in mind the most negative option, that Russia may stop supplies altogether, and not just partially. The level of temperature that will be provided in the winter in dwellings is also reduced. They also talk about other savings measures. But the question is still what kind of winter it will be.

If the winter is moderate, then Europe will be able to hold out with all the austerity measures, and the Americans will be able to plant LNG there. But if the winter is very cold, then everything is much more difficult.

So now it’s such an intrigue. It is still unclear how to reach an agreement in conditions when relations are actually severed and the interests of the parties are diametrically opposed. As a result, the following situation may turn out: Europe may freeze if there is severe cold, on the other hand, Russia may lose the European gas market. Here the situation is such that the conflict is aggravated. Whenever previous disagreements were discussed, the gas issue was either left out of the equation or managed to be resolved. Still, stable gas supplies to Europe, primarily Western Europe, to Germany were still in Soviet times. After the reunification of Germany, all this was also preserved. Now, since the rules in the current international relations are rapidly changing, anything can happen in the gas issue.

In any case, these relations are now at the center of the conflict. None of the experts can offer an algorithm for achieving at least a temporary compromise. So, while events are developing according to the escalation scenario.”