Named the consequences of the global economic crisis-2023 for Russia

First of all, this is a drop in hydrocarbon exports.

In fact, 2023 has already been set as the year of the start of a new global recession. Statements by authoritative persons from different countries, excluding the possibility of a different scenario, are being heard more and more often today. Uncontrolled inflation, falling stock markets, a sharp deterioration in GDP growth prospects, depreciation of currencies and an increase in public debt – few people on the planet will not feel the consequences of what is happening. But maybe everything will be the other way around with Russia? Maybe this is some chance for its economy oppressed by sanctions?

By the way, according to the IMF forecast updated in October, in 2023 Russian GDP will decrease by 2.3% instead of 3.5%. As for the prospects for a global crisis, the Fund’s experts do not believe in them, although they predict an extremely unstable and uneven situation. According to their calculations, the GDP of the three largest economies – the United States, the European Union and China – is waiting for a slowdown in growth. And for many around the world, 2023 will feel like a recession. The main economic trend of the current year is high inflation, the World Bank notes. An additional burden on poor countries will be increased interest rates by the leading central banks.

The Russian regulator, through the mouth of Elvira Nabiullina, admits that in 2023 the most severe scenario of the development of events, comparable in scale to the crisis of 2008-2009, is not ruled out. For Russia, it will result in a drop in demand for the main export resource – hydrocarbons, and will require an accelerated structural restructuring of the Russian economy. Which, nevertheless, will take several years and will be accompanied by technological regression in a number of industries. In addition, the role of shuttle small businesses will grow.

“Technically, a recession has already begun in Europe: its GDP has been declining for three consecutive quarters,” says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at Amarkets. – Prices are rising everywhere (in Turkey, hyperinflation has reached almost 90%), electricity tariffs, the cost of raw materials and agricultural products, production rates are slowing down, household incomes are falling. The crisis may turn out to be protracted, extremely severe, and lead to a complete transformation of the global economic and financial system.”

For Russia, the main consequence will be a drop in exports, primarily oil and gas. Accordingly, budget revenues will be reduced (this year, the treasury deficit is expected to reach 2.9 trillion rubles. To pay it off, the National Wealth Fund is already printing out with might and main, since it takes time and money to redirect export flows from Europe to Asia. And taking into account the military aspect, With the growing costs of continuing the NWO, difficult times await the country and its economy, Deev argues.

“The world has not yet fully recovered from the effects of the pandemic,” said Mark Goykhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade. – Fighting it, the central banks adhered to an ultra-soft monetary policy, which ultimately led to a surge in the money supply in the world, to unprecedented inflation in developed countries. To this was added a raw material crisis – in the form of a shortage of energy resources and high prices. And now, fighting inflation, regulators are raising interest rates, which makes loans and investments more expensive, and reduces business profitability. All these processes, bizarrely intertwined and accompanied by a sharp increase in geopolitical risks, create an explosive mixture of really formidable factors.

A potential global crisis is fraught with a sharp reduction in external demand for Russian exports and a rise in prices for critically important imported goods for the Russian Federation. The economy will also clearly suffer as a result of a 90% drop in the physical volume of supplies of oil and oil products to the EU in late 2022 – early 2023 due to the partial embargo being introduced. Already now, the landslide drop in gas exports to Europe, the supply of metals abroad, and chemical products are affecting budget revenues, recalls Goykhman. The reorientation to other sales markets only partially compensates for the losses from the rupture of ties with the EU, since supplies to Asia and South America are much lower in terms of volumes and realized prices. All these circumstances together lead to a sharp contraction in federal budget revenues, which limits economic growth as a whole.

“A comparison with the situation in 2008-2009 is unjustified, there will be no such deep recession in 2023,” says Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – The authorities of developed countries quite successfully stop all sorts of economic challenges, for example, the United States managed to bring down the annual inflation rate from 9.5% to 8%. And I do not agree with the thesis that if the world demand for Russian energy resources falls, this will complicate the structural transformation in the Russian Federation. On the contrary, it will spur it on, because the country will simply have nowhere to go. Relying further on raw material “crutches”, as we have done for decades, will no longer work.”

According to Nikolaev, oil and gas as the main export goods of Russia may well be replaced by agricultural products (especially in demand given the current food crisis in the world), food, medicine, mineral fertilizers, which the EU eventually excluded from the sanctions list. And there will always be markets. And one should not hope that OPEC will approve new restrictions on oil production, which will lead to an increase in quotations.