Named the arguments “for” and “against” the urgent purchase of foreign currency for the Russians

Is it worth waiting for the collapse of the ruble in the fall

The closer the breath of autumn, the more talk – both among the townsfolk and among financiers – about the imminent and inevitable collapse of the ruble. However, these rumors have been circulating for more than one month, but in reality nothing of the kind is happening: even today, in August, the Russian currency is confidently holding on to a quite worthy mark of 60 per dollar. This cannot continue indefinitely, some analysts assure, urging citizens to buy dollars and euros right now, so that in the fall, when the rate supposedly weakens to 70-80, they don’t bite their elbows. But how justified are these calls?

This year, in force majeure circumstances for the economy, the ruble has demonstrated extreme volatility, fixing at 75 (in January), 120 (in March) and 50 (in June). However, if we take into account the last two months, there is no need to talk about any serious jumps: the rate did not deviate from the level of 60 for long and insignificantly.

The state does not like this situation, the Ministry of Finance considers 70-80 per dollar to be the optimal corridor for the treasury. This range was voiced by the leaders of the economic bloc of the government at the beginning of the summer at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.

Too strong national currency hurts the interests of exporters, primarily raw materials producers. Having concluded an agreement for the supply of goods abroad at one dollar rate, the manufacturer is in fact forced to trade at lower rates, losing ruble revenue. In this regard, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced plans to weaken the ruble through the purchase of currencies of friendly countries and an indirect impact on the value of the dollar through cross rates. But plans are plans, and life is life.

“The President instructed to submit proposals for adjusting the budget rule by June 25, but the Ministry of Finance is silent like a fish,” says BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. – According to the Central Bank’s quarterly report on monetary policy dated August 1, the fiscal rule mechanism will be resumed from 2023. Accordingly, the likelihood of foreign exchange interventions has declined sharply.”

Now is not the time to play on the devaluation of the ruble, Antonov argues. Today, the dollar, euro, pound and yen are not able to protect against inflation, since these are clearly toxic assets for Russia. Banks introduce commissions for transfers in foreign currency, as well as for currency and brokerage accounts, the Central Bank calls for converting the dollar and euro into the currencies of friendly countries or the ruble so as not to expose yourself to risk. “If you invest in something, it’s in the Chinese yuan: no commissions and blocking, and from the point of view of investments, it’s almost the best option,” Antonov believes.

But not all experts think so. “There is no doubt: in the next two or three months, the dollar will reach the level of 70 rubles. Oil and gas revenues are falling, and it is necessary to fill the budget with rubles, – Georgy Svirin, specialist in international financial markets at the Finmir marketplace, notes. – Another thing is that the weakening of the exchange rate may begin both tomorrow and in the second half of September. Much depends on two factors: when non-residents will be allowed to enter the market and when the new version of the fiscal rule will come into force. The Central Bank will not only buy foreign currency in the form of dollars and euros, but will sell rubles to buy, for example, the yuan.”

As for ordinary citizens who do not lose hope of earning extra money on the difference in rates, then, according to the interlocutor of MK, you can buy dollars and euros – there is a certain sense in this, but it is better to do it on the stock exchange to minimize losses. In banks, the mark-up to the exchange rate will be at least 10%. That is, Svirin explains, if today the dollar, even at the rate of the Central Bank, costs 60 rubles, then it cannot be found cheaper than 66 in exchange offices.

“I don’t see any point in buying cash dollars in banks, where the margin is at best 15%,” financial analyst Sergey Drozdov echoes his colleague. – Let’s go in a simple logical way. Now the exchange rate is about 60, and in banks a dollar will cost you about 70 rubles, taking into account the extra charge. And when the rate approaches 72-75, credit institutions will sell the dollar at an even higher price. So you won’t be able to make money and win something. Only exchange instruments give a chance to make money – futures for the dollar / ruble pair and the so-called GOLD rate against the ruble, when gold is priced in rubles, linked to the exchange rate.

As for the prospect of foreign exchange interventions, through which the Ministry of Finance allegedly “lowers” ​​the ruble, they cannot be carried out directly through the dollar due to sanctions and the freezing of the Central Bank’s reserves, and the parameters of the new budget rule have not yet been worked out. Of course, the government will do everything to bring the exchange rate up to 70 in a controlled manner, and in the future the Russian currency will certainly weaken. But there is no need to talk about any hard deadlines: this can happen in September, and in December, and in a week.