Named goods that primarily rise in price due to the depreciation of the ruble

The dollar exchange rate during trading on the Moscow Exchange on December 21, the dollar exceeded 70 rubles, and the euro was at around 75 rubles. The Russian currency has not fallen so low since the end of April – the beginning of May. The ruble gave way on the eve of the New Year holidays, when some are planning holidays abroad, while others are buying gifts, which adds to the situation of consumer drama.

Previously, the weakening of the ruble always led to higher prices. But this year, the Russian economy is under pressure from sanctions, and the government is stimulating import substitution. For which goods prices will rise first of all due to the weakening of the ruble, experts told MK.

The weakening of the domestic currency began at the end of November due to the simultaneous impact of a whole group of factors. Pressure on the ruble and the “ceilings” of oil and gas prices (even at the stage of their discussion), and the ninth package of EU sanctions, and the decline in prices for “black gold” in world markets, and the problems of the Russian budget due to shortfall in tax revenues from exporters.

The unique reasons for December can only be called the influence of the period of purchases of goods, including foreign production (through imports) by the new year, as well as the acquisition of foreign currency for foreign travel by the population.

“EU measures restricting Russia’s oil exports may negatively affect the state’s export revenues and, as a result, contribute to the expansion of the budget deficit,” said Yulia Melnikova, an analyst at Alfa Capital. “At the same time, imports are recovering, which increases pressure on the ruble.”

The financial authorities have been saying for almost nine months that a strong ruble is unprofitable for the Russian economy. In June, the head of the RF Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, refused to recognize the possibility of living with a dollar for 50 rubles as a “new reality”. He pointed out that such a course negatively affects the budget, because “every ruble for a dollar brings us about 130 billion in revenue.”

And now the desire of the “powerful of this world” came true: the ruble began to weaken. It remains only to assess to what level it can retreat in front of foreign currency.

“Since the beginning of December, the dollar has grown by 10 rubles,” says BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. “If we estimate the budget deficit at about 2 trillion rubles, then to close the “hole” in it, the dollar exchange rate still needs to rise – up to 75 rubles.” The analyst believes that even before the new year, the dollar can reach 80 rubles, and the euro – up to 85.

“I believe that these are the price limits for the weakening of the ruble,” Antonov says. “The market is controlled by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and, if financial stability is threatened, the regulator may strengthen the restrictive measures that were used after February 24: introduce commissions for the purchase of foreign currency or reduce limits on transfers to foreign accounts.” So only the Bank of Russia knows at what levels to stop the weakening of the ruble, since there are no non-residents (foreign investors) in the domestic market, and the mechanisms of market pricing are violated, the analyst says.

“For the sake of fairness, it should be noted that at the end of the year, the ruble quite often went into a serious minus relative to November and early December, so to some extent this is a normal phenomenon,” financial expert Alexei Krichevsky continues the conversation. The most likely scenario, taking into account the current situation on the foreign exchange market, is a stop at 75 rubles per dollar and a decrease to 70-72 rubles with a possible hike to 65 rubles per unit of the US currency. “The weakening of the ruble is a natural and expected process, as well as a steady trend that gradually leads to the border of 75 rubles per dollar,” agrees Maxim Fedorov, Investment Advisor at Fontvielle Investment Company. Probably, in the area of ​​this border, the rate will fluctuate in the near future, slightly correcting first in one direction, then in the other.

Inflation in January with such a rate will definitely be higher, and if there is a need to purchase some imported goods – as a gift or for personal use – then you should do it now, besides, New Year’s discounts are offered everywhere. But, according to Krichevsky, it is definitely not worth lending for the sake of a new model phone – here the view is not in inflation, but in the fact that in this way the borrower will reduce the quality of life for the period of the loan due to an emotional decision.

As Antonov recalled, from the beginning of 2023, all alcohol will rise in price due to an increase in excise taxes, as well as cosmetics and household chemicals from “unfriendly countries”. Given that the New Year holidays are approaching, chain grocery stores will start rewriting price tags now so as not to lose profits. Household appliances and cars will also be revised upward in price.

“With a strong ruble, anti-Russian sanctions, disruption of supply chains and a reduction in stocks in warehouses, imported goods did not become much cheaper,” the analyst recalled that it was in the summer. Accordingly, with a weak ruble, imports will be revalued first.

“Changes, as well as logistics costs that are paid in dollars, will be reflected in the cost of goods delivered under the parallel import program,” Fedorov is sure. It turns out that all products of brands that have left Russia, which are sold on marketplaces, will increase in price, the expert warned.