Named five factors that threaten to bring down the ruble in September

The next week may be a turning point for the ruble. Until now, the Russian national currency has demonstrated downright concrete stability, fluctuating steadily around 60-61 rubles per dollar and euro. But, according to financial analysts, a whole series of events is coming that could work to weaken the ruble. Moreover, several negative factors can overlap at once, provoking the collapse of our national currency.

The first meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank after the summer holidays is scheduled for September 16, at which the next decision on the key rate will be made. Since inflation, according to official statistics, is slowing down, it is likely that the rate will be lowered again. And when the rate goes down, this is a signal for the market to weaken the national currency. “The next rate cut by the Central Bank is a reason to transfer investments into more profitable or more reliable currency instruments, but in modern conditions it is problematic for Russian investors to find options for such investments,” says Valentina Savenkova, project manager at Veles Capital investment company.

In addition, a few days after the Bank of Russia, the decision on its interest rate will be made by the American central bank – the Federal Reserve System. If the Fed, as most experts expect, will be raised again, then this may provide global support to the dollar, as it will make protective American assets more attractive for investment. Based on this, in the ruble-dollar pair, the “Russian” should lose ground, and the “American”, on the contrary, gain weight.

But not only central bank manipulation of rates will affect the exchange rate. It is possible that as early as next week, the Ministry of Finance will introduce, as many expect on the market, a new budget rule to replace the old one that “dead” in March. “Until the end of September, the Russian Ministry of Finance, as previously announced, will return to the budget rule, albeit in an adjusted format,” says Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, “But in fact, in any case, it will involve the sale of rubles by the Central Bank on behalf of the Ministry of Finance and exchange them for foreign currencies – only not dollars and euros, as before, but friendly countries. Nevertheless, it will actually work to strengthen foreign currencies against the ruble, including unfriendly ones (dollar and euro) through cross rates.”

Another factor working against the Russian currency is falling oil prices. Recently, its quotes have already fallen to $89-90 from the summer level of $100-110 per barrel. Whatever politicians and economists say about “untying” the ruble from the price of “black gold”, stock speculators are still vigilantly watching this parameter. And if a barrel falls in price, then either immediately or with a small lag, the ruble also begins to fall in price against the dollar.

The situation with the trade balance of the Russian Federation can also play against the ruble. “Now Russia’s trade balance is seriously skewed towards exports, however, there are trends towards a gradual increase in parallel imports,” explains Valentina Savenkova. “The end of the holiday season may become an impetus for the growth of imports, which may contribute to the weakening of the ruble.”

Finally, macroeconomic factors cannot be ignored. The budget deficit in July amounted to almost 900 billion rubles, which is an extremely high figure in monthly terms. As Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently predicted, by the end of the year this parameter could reach 1.6 trillion. rubles. And this despite the fact that according to the results of the first quarter, we did not have a deficit, but even a surplus (the predominance of income over expenses) in the amount of 1.4 trillion rubles. rubles. In general, the trend is obvious: the budget is going into deep negative territory, and in order to patch holes in it, it is vital for the monetary authorities to achieve a weakening of the ruble.

In this regard, most financial analysts expect a quick and sharp weakening of the ruble – somewhere up to 70 per dollar over the next month and up to 80 by the end of the year. In fairness, we note that a very important geopolitical factor hovers over all these forecasts – the development of events in Ukraine and around it – which is capable of both bringing down the ruble and strengthening it. However, this factor is practically impossible to predict, at least from the side of financial experts.

Against this background, what should ordinary citizens do, who still have some savings left: is it worth investing in foreign currency, and if so, in which one? Expert opinion is divided on this matter. Artem Tuzov, Executive Director of the Capital Market Department of IVA Partners Investment Company, advocates that you need to buy cash currency – “and any that you can buy.” But now the expert considers only the Chinese yuan to be a safe non-cash currency. The dollar and the euro, in his opinion, in the face of growing sanctions, remain toxic and risky currencies in Russia.

But Natalya Milchakova, for her part, does not recommend that Russians buy any foreign currency: even yuan and currencies of other friendly countries, except when a person is going to go on vacation, on a trip or on a business trip abroad. “Foreign currencies, and all of them, are either toxic for Russians due to sanctions (like the dollar and the euro), or it is unprofitable to keep deposits in Russia in the currencies of friendly countries, since some of them are even more volatile or risky than the ruble,” the analyst points out. . Well, if someone has an urgent need for some reason to keep money in dollars, euros, yuan or other foreign currencies, then she advises doing this not in Russian banks, many of which have already introduced a commission on foreign currency deposits, but interest on foreign currency deposits in Russia is very low. “It’s better to combine business with pleasure – to go on vacation to one of the EAEU countries and at the same time open a foreign currency deposit there in one of the local banks,” says Milchakova.