Nagorno-Karabakh surrendered on the second day of the Azerbaijani offensive

The authorities of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) decided to cease fire on September 20 from 13.00 local time (12.00 Moscow time) and disarm their forces in order to begin negotiations with Baku. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense confirmed in a statement on the afternoon of September 20 that a ceasefire agreement had been reached through Russian peacekeepers. The disarmament of Armenian forces will also take place in coordination with the Russian military. The Armenian Foreign Ministry stated on the afternoon of September 20 that Karabakh could theoretically live under the control of Azerbaijan and the residents of the unrecognized NKR are ready for negotiations with Baku, but the dialogue must be “established.”

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in an address to the nation, said that Yerevan did not participate in the preparation of the ceasefire agreement, there have been no Armenian armed forces in Karabakh since the summer of 2021, but he “takes note” of the decision of the NKR authorities.

The Information Center of Artsakh (the Armenian name of Karabakh, the official resource of its authorities) explains the decision to stop resistance by the fact that in just over a day the Armenian forces suffered heavy losses, “and in some areas the enemy managed to break through to the combat positions of the defense forces and take control of a number of heights.” . On the second day of hostilities in Karabakh, 32 residents became victims of shelling and 200 were injured, said Armenian Ombudsman Anahit Manasyan.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 2,261 civilians, including 1,049 children, found shelter in the base camp of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan assured of the “successful continuation of the operation” against the “army of Armenia” and the “capture of 60 positions.” According to the administration of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, negotiations with representatives of Karabakh will take place in Azerbaijani Yevlakh (100 km from Stepanakert) on September 21 and will be devoted to issues of “reintegration.” Previously, Azerbaijan refused such negotiations. The authorities of the unrecognized NKR confirmed the date and place of the meeting, adding that “issues [об] ensuring the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, ensuring the livelihoods of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh within the framework of the Constitution of Azerbaijan.”

Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov, responding on September 20 to the reproaches of the Chairman of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan to Russian peacekeepers for failure to fulfill “obligations to protect Karabakh,” said that “such accusations are absolutely groundless, not based on anything.” According to him, Yerevan de jure recognized the region as part of Azerbaijan at a conference in Prague in 2022 and Baku acted de jure on its territory. “We continue contacts with the Armenian side; Armenia has been and remains our very important ally, partner, a country close to us,” Peskov said. – And we also continue contacts with Azerbaijan, this is also a very important partner of ours. We continue our contacts with the Armenians in Karabakh.”

The Russian peacekeeping contingent has the right to use weapons only in the event of a direct attack on it, and Russia, as an ally of Armenia, must provide assistance in protecting its recognized borders, the perimeter of which Karabakh is not included, a source in the Russian Ministry of Defense explained. For this purpose, the 102nd Russian military base is stationed in Armenia.

Vladimir Putin briefly commented on the events in Karabakh at a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: “Russian peacekeepers are doing everything to protect the civilian population. We are in constant contact with the authorities in Yerevan, Stepanakert and Baku. We hope that we can achieve de-escalation and transfer the problem to a peaceful channel.”

On the night before the actual capitulation of Karabakh, Yerevan tried to enlist the support of the West. On September 21, the situation in the region, at the request of France, will be considered by the UN Security Council, press secretary of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Ani Badalyan said on the social network X (formerly Twitter). The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry on the morning of September 20 classified French diplomatic actions as “support for the remnants of the occupying forces [Армении]” Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York with the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell and US Assistant Secretary of State Yuri Kim, calling on Brussels and Washington to take “urgent measures” and “concrete actions.” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for an immediate end to the fighting in Karabakh. But the president of the unrecognized NKR, Samvel Shahramanyan, called the reaction of the international community “inadequate” due to the lack of practical steps. On the night of September 20 Moscow time, Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with Pashinyan and Aliyev. Blinken assured Pashinyan of support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia. The American Secretary of State called on Aliyev to stop hostilities. In the morning, Aliyev’s press service responded to Blinken that stopping the operation and starting negotiations would happen “if they [армянская сторона] they will lay down their arms and surrender,” which is what ultimately happened.

“On September 19–20, 2023, we saw the end of the second Karabakh war, which was suspended in November 2020, the results of which were dissatisfied with both Armenia and Azerbaijan,” says Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS. Back in the fall of 2020, Baku could have completed the fighting in its favor; the Armenians had lost all the important strategic points necessary for a successful defense, so now the forces of Karabakh and volunteers from Armenia could not offer long-term resistance, explains Mukhanov. In the current conditions, the Armenians of Karabakh will have to accept the conditions of the winner. “The standard system of governance of Azerbaijan will obviously spread to Karabakh; leadership positions in territorial entities will apparently be occupied by ethnic Azerbaijanis, as is the case, with rare exceptions, in other regions. It’s hardly possible to talk about territorial or cultural autonomy yet, although the history of the region differs from areas inhabited, for example, by Talysh or Lezgins,” says Mukhanov. According to him, it is now necessary to ensure unhindered departure of Armenians wishing to leave Karabakh to friendly countries. It is the issue of the Armenian civilian population that should concern external players. They must influence Baku so that it “does not exert direct force pressure on it,” the expert says.

Armenia tried to enlist international support, based on the experience of many years of interaction with the OSCE Minsk Group, chaired by Russia, France and the United States, Mukhanov noted. “Their consolidated position has more than once helped Yerevan stabilize the situation. Now the situation has changed and this has become impossible. But Armenia will still need international support to resolve relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,” the expert sums up.

Pashinyan distanced himself from the situation in Karabakh, saying that Armenia was not going to fight and its troops were not there, and the Karabakh formations had no chance to stand alone against the Azerbaijani army, says Artur Ataev, head of the Caucasian studies sector of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies. The only actor capable of preventing the threat to the civilians of Karabakh in these conditions was Russia, which is why, through the command of its peacekeepers, negotiations were held between Stepanakert and Baku on a ceasefire without the participation of Yerevan, Ataev continues.

According to a Vedomosti source familiar with the situation, Pashinyan was informed about the NKR-Baku truce contacts after the fact.