Moving up – Newspaper Kommersant No. 56 (7501) dated 04/03/2023
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The presidential administration (PA) has decided on the desired targets for the 2024 presidential election based on the result of the candidate from the authorities and the turnout, which can be described by the formula “75+/70+”. According to Kommersant’s sources, these figures were discussed with the vice-governors for domestic policy at a seminar held last week. When these indicators are reached, the absolute number of votes cast for a candidate from power will be more than in the 2018 elections, where Vladimir Putin showed a record result. They will also allow this candidate to receive the support of an absolute majority from the list of voters, taking into account the inhabitants of the new territories. In addition, according to Kommersant’s interlocutors, preliminary ideological guidelines for this campaign have been formed in the internal political bloc of the Presidential Administration.
The Kremlin’s internal political bloc has decided on a preliminary concept for the future presidential campaign. According to three well-informed Kommersant sources close to the Presidential Administration, at a seminar for vice-governors on domestic policy, held on March 29-31 in the Senezh department near Moscow, they were brought to the desired targets for the turnout and result of a candidate from the authorities. Although Vladimir Putin himself has not yet announced his participation in the 2024 elections, the Presidential Administration, according to Kommersant, proceeds from the fact that he will run. According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, the vice-governors were instructed to proceed from the situation in their regions, but the Presidential Administration would like the all-Russian turnout rate in 2024 to be above 70%, and the result of the “main candidate” – more than 75% of the vote.
Recall that in the 2018 elections, Mr. Putin won 76.69% with a turnout of 67.54%, that is, more than 56.4 million votes – this is a record in the history of presidential elections in the Russian Federation. If the new targets are reached, then the absolute number of votes for a candidate from the authorities will exceed the results of 2018, since the number of voters in the Russian Federation has grown due to residents of the annexed territories. In 2018, the Kremlin proceeded from the fact that Vladimir Putin should receive the support of the majority of Russians, and the same logic, Kommersant sources say, is still valid now: the announced targets will allow the candidate from the government to gain an absolute majority of votes from the list of voters, taking into account those who became Russians after the annexation of new regions.
The Kremlin does not see any problems with achieving new goals: the president’s support is high, the main thing is the legitimacy of the campaign, says the interlocutor of Kommersant.
Under it, the Presidential Administration understands people’s trust in the results, their conviction that the honesty and transparency of the voting procedure and the entire campaign were observed, the source explains.
The presidential election was also discussed at a seminar for members of the internal political bloc of the Presidential Administration in early March. Like the Lieutenant Governors seminar, this is a regular event that the AP holds once a year, and the inclusion of the 2024 election on their agenda is due to the fact that these are actually the last such seminars before the official start of the campaign in December 2023, the sources explain. b”. According to RBC, at the beginning of March, the participants of the seminar were also informed of the general targets for the 2024 elections, according to which the result of the “main candidate” should be better than in 2018. Similar setup as reported last week Vedomostiwas brought to the attention of the vice-governors at the last seminar, who were also told that the presidential campaign had in fact begun.
Kommersant’s sources also claim that the Presidential Administration has decided on the ideological guidelines for the campaign, which were also discussed in Senezh.
In the domestic political bloc, they believe that it should be built on three blocks: “pride (sovereignty), hope (opportunities), confidence (traditions)”. This is a bundle of “values and emotions” that must be used during the campaign, Kommersant’s interlocutors explain. For example, the emotion of pride is based on the sovereignty of Russia, hopes are born from the awareness of the opportunities provided by the country, and confidence is based on adherence to traditions. According to sources, the campaign should also take into account the topic of a special military operation, which inevitably remains “the core of the information agenda.”
Also, the campaign should be built on the principle “it was – it became – it will be,” Kommersant’s interlocutors say, that is, it is necessary to focus on the achievements of Russia under Vladimir Putin. Just last week, the President signed a decree on the international exhibition-forum “Russia”, which will be held in 2023-2024 on the territory of VDNKh. According to the decree, the exhibition is held “in order to demonstrate the most important achievements of the Russian Federation in various sectors of the economy, including industry, energy, agro-industrial complex, transport, construction, science and culture, the positive experience of developing the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and promoting further international cooperation of the Russian Federation.”
According to sources, the Festival of Youth and Students will also be held during the presidential campaign. So far, it has been officially announced that it will take place in the spring of 2024.
The campaign will focus on the problems of youth, since young people and women are considered social groups that are the main risks for the authorities in 2024, Kommersant’s interlocutors explain.
It should be noted that the course “Fundamentals of Russian Statehood”, which is being developed for students as part of the “DNA of Russia” project, is planned to begin teaching at universities as early as September this year, that is, even before the official start of the presidential campaign.
Both seminars also discussed preliminary assessments of the electoral niches of a candidate from power, which in total unite 84% of Russian citizens, Kommersant’s sources say. “But this is exactly the maximum, in fact, those with whom you can work,” one of the interlocutors says. According to him, these people are conditionally divided into four groups: loyalists, patriots, socialists and progressives. Loyalists have a good attitude towards authority and are satisfied with the quality of their lives so far; patriots – “unmercenaries” who are ready to endure difficulties for the sake of the country’s future; socialists are mainly public sector workers (teachers, doctors, etc.), for whom justice in society is of particular importance. Finally, for progressives, the most important thing is the further economic development of the country. 16% of Russians who are not included in the mentioned electoral niches are, according to Kommersant’s interlocutors, Western-oriented citizens.
The head of the Civil Society Development Fund, Konstantin Kostin, notes that the future elections are likely to be held according to the “plebiscite scenario” and within its framework the named targets are quite achievable. “It’s all logical. There is no striving for records here. It’s just that any campaign manager always strives to achieve the maximum result, based on the current socio-political situation and the mood of citizens. And all the main indicators – work assessment, trust and electoral rating – are now very high for Vladimir Putin, ”the expert believes. As for the principle “it was – it became – it will be”, then all campaigns, both party and individual, traditionally line up on it when it comes to re-election, Mr. Kostin notes. “The main intrigue is the dramaturgy of the elections, how the main messages and ideological guidelines will be presented and implemented. Through what formats, projects and through what leaders of public opinion they will be conveyed to citizens,” the political scientist continues. For example, a separate work is to be done with a group of “angry patriots,” explains Konstantin Kostin: “Potentially, for the most part, this is a pro-presidential electorate. And that’s exactly what we need to think about how to make them come to the polls and vote for the candidate from the authorities.”
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