Moscow to host meeting of ministers and intelligence chiefs of four countries

This year’s first meeting of the heads of defense and intelligence agencies of Turkey, Russia, Iran and Syria will be held in Moscow on April 25, said Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. This announcement is posted on the ministry’s website. The previous meeting in a similar composition, but without the participation of Iran, was held in the Russian capital at the end of December 2022. The purpose of the new, expanded meeting, Akar called “the solution [сирийской] problems through negotiations, [чтобы] bring peace and tranquility to the region as soon as possible.” “We expect that after the meeting there will be some positive developments,” the press service reports the words of the Turkish minister. The statement notes that Turkey remains “resolute in the fight against terrorism”, “does not want additional migration, seeks to ensure that the Syrians in Turkey return to their lands voluntarily and safely after the necessary conditions are met.” “We have Syrian brothers and sisters with whom we are together. It is out of the question to make any decision or situation that will bring trouble on them. Let them be comfortable,” Akar said.

On April 10, it became known that the planned meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria had to be postponed due to the position of Damascus. The Syrian government demands the withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syrian territory, including the province of Idlib and part of the Kurdish-populated areas, before engaging in negotiations with Ankara at the Foreign Ministry level. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in turn, said that the foreign ministers of the four countries will now meet in early May in Moscow – before the general parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for May 14 in Turkey.

The first meeting of the defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of Syria, Turkey and Russia in December 2022 in Moscow took place after the proposal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to restore diplomatic relations with Syria, as well as to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It was understood that the summit could take place after the meetings of the defense ministers and then the foreign ministers of the two countries.

The agenda for the April 25 meeting is dictated by the fact that it is the military who should essentially discuss the Syrian demands for the withdrawal of Turkish troops, as well as what Syria can offer in return, says Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs. The task of the Russian and Iranian mediators is to ensure that the parties start talking not with slogans, but discuss specific concessions, compromises and technical details that would lead to the final normalization of relations, the expert clarifies. It is necessary to discuss the issue of a security zone in Syria along the Turkish border, the fate of Syrian refugees, the situation with Kurdish armed groups that are not controlled by Damascus, Semyonov said.

Another problem on the agenda of the negotiations is the separation of the military along the line of clash of interests of different parties and the prospect of regaining control of Damascus over the lost northern regions, Andrey Chuprygin, senior lecturer at the HSE School of Oriental Studies, continues. “The situation in the country is still stalemate. The Syrian authorities are not able to solve this problem on their own, and the external participants in the process from the “Syrian side” – Russia and Iran – do not have sufficient military and political resources to squeeze Turkey out of the region,” the expert says. If Syria regains membership in the Arab League in the near future, then the Turkish-Syrian process may receive a new impetus. “In this case, Damascus will probably be able to count on the support of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” the orientalist added.

Ankara is likely to raise the issue of intensifying Kurdish armed formations on the Syrian-Turkish border, agrees Nikolai Surkov, senior researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at IMEMO RAS. “For Turkey, the Syrian issue is primarily a Kurdish issue. They are concerned about the presence of Kurdish armed groups near their borders,” the expert continues. The Kurds, on the other hand, have not yet demonstrated readiness to negotiate with the Assad government, Surkov noted: “Since 2011, they have been living an independent life. The proposal of limited autonomy within Syria does not interest them. Damascus is not ready to go for more, given that the autonomy of the Kurdish regions can create a dangerous precedent and inspire separatist actions and Druze in the south of the country.”