Moscow agreed to prepare a roadmap for the settlement of relations between Syria and Turkey

Foreign Ministers of Russia, Turkey, Syria and Iran Sergey Lavrov, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Faisal Mikdad and Hossein Amir Abdollahian agreed in Moscow on May 10 to instruct their deputies to prepare a roadmap to normalize relations between Ankara and Damascus. This work should be carried out in coordination with the defense ministries and intelligence services of the four countries. All parties once again reaffirmed their commitment to the territorial integrity of Syria, the press service of the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

According to Lavrov, Moscow’s task is not only to consolidate the political normalization of Syrian-Turkish relations. “It is important to start discussing the issue of restoring interrupted transport logistics links between the two neighboring countries and resuming trade and economic cooperation without any barriers,” the Russian minister said.

The Russian minister also said at the opening of the talks that the United States, whose military is also in Syria without the approval of the country’s authorities, has begun to create a “Free Syrian Army” in the vicinity of Syrian Raqqa in the north of the country with the participation of representatives of local Arab tribes and former militants of the Islamic State » (IS; designated as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia). According to him, in this way Washington “uses militants against the legitimate authorities in Damascus.” “This issue was recently discussed by our military colleagues, who agreed on a scheme of joint actions in this area,” Lavrov said (quote from the press service of the Russian Foreign Ministry).

The talks between the foreign ministers of the four countries, scheduled earlier for April 10, had to be postponed due to the position of Damascus. The Syrian authorities demanded the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syrian territory as a condition for further normalization and restoration of diplomatic relations with Ankara broken in 2012 without prior concessions from the government of Bashar al-Assad. Turkish troops in 2016–2019 successively occupied parts of the Syrian provinces of Idlib and Raqqa under the pretext of fighting Islamists and US-backed Syrian Kurds (the Turkish side is considered to be associated with the PKK, which it recognizes as a terrorist organization). The Turkish army is stationed in these areas without official permission from the country’s authorities. Prior to this, Ankara openly supported the armed opposition in the acute phase of the civil war in Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has also participated in the creation of the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA) in Idlib on the basis of opposition and Islamist formations from among local Arabs and Turkomans. The official goal of the SNA was to fight ISIS.

The previous talks on the Syrian settlement were held in Moscow on April 25 at the level of the heads of the defense departments and intelligence services of the four countries. Then the military confirmed the need to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria, agreed to intensify work on the return of refugees to the country (there are about 4 million in Turkey alone) and continue negotiations in the same format.

It is not worth expecting the withdrawal of any troops, including Turkish ones, from Syrian territory in the near future, Andrey Zeltyn, a senior lecturer at the HSE School of Oriental Studies, believes. “Erdogan will not withdraw troops from Syrian territory before the elections, so as not to lose in the rating – after all, in this case, the opposition will present him as a leader who sacrificed money and people for a zero result. The troops will not be withdrawn even after the elections,” the expert believes.

According to Zeltyn, regardless of the victory of the incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or the opposition, the understanding in the minds of Turkish society that the border strip of Syria is a threat to national security has firmly strengthened. “Any politician who announces the curtailment of the military operation will sharply lose his authority. The only option in which Ankara will leave the territory of Syria is security guarantees that Damascus cannot give, but the leading Arab countries – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, can,” the expert says.

“If these states force the admission of Syria back into the Arab League and allocate enough resources to ensure security in the northern regions of the Arab Republic, which Damascus does not control, Turkey may think about withdrawing its troops, especially since the desire to normalize relations with the Saudis There are still Ankara,” Zeltyn believes.

The Russian minister also said at the opening of the talks that the United States, whose military is also in Syria without the approval of the country’s authorities, has begun to create a “Free Syrian Army” in the vicinity of Syrian Raqqa in the north of the country with the participation of representatives of local Arab tribes and former IS militants. According to him, in this way Washington “uses militants against the legitimate authorities in Damascus.” “This issue was recently discussed by our military colleagues, who agreed on a scheme of joint actions in this direction,” Lavrov said (quote from the press service of the Russian Foreign Ministry).

In this way, the United States is trying to play the role of a spoiler in order to frustrate attempts to resolve the Syrian crisis, said Nikolai Surkov, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at IMEMO RAS. “Washington actually controls the northeast with the help of Kurdish proxies. They also control At-Tanf, a strategically important section of the Syrian desert in the east, which allows them to cut communications between Damascus and Baghdad, the expert noted. “Although the Americans do not have the resources to change the regime, through their allies, the Americans can influence the dynamics of processes in Syria and in the whole region.”

Although President Joe Biden, compared to the previous administration, shows less interest in Middle Eastern affairs, the United States does not intend to give up the Syrian asset, Surkov said. “They need Syria as a containment territory for Iranian influence in the region. This space poses a security threat to Jordan and Israel, American allies in the Middle East. In addition, Syria is a bargaining chip for the Americans, which can be converted into political bonuses,” the expert concluded.