More or less smoked – Newspaper Kommersant No. 37 (7482) dated 03/03/2023

Global carbon dioxide emissions, although reaching record levels in 2022, turned out to be less than analysts predicted, follows from a review by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Considering the jump in energy prices caused by the Russian military operation in Ukraine and the forced increase in the use of coal-fired generation, experts expected an increase in greenhouse emissions comparable to what was recorded due to the “surge” in industrial activity after the COVID-19 pandemic. However, contrary to forecasts, the consequences of the energy crisis were partially offset by the growth in the use of renewable energy sources and the industrial slowdown in Europe and China.

Global greenhouse emissions hit a record 36.8 billion tons in 2022, according to a new IEA report. After two years of “covid” surges in energy consumption, the growth in emissions last year turned out to be insignificant – 0.9% (or 321 million tons) against 6% in 2021. Analysts attribute about 60 million tons of “additional” emissions to an increase in demand for heating and cooling due to weather anomalies, and another 55 million tons to the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plant reactors for maintenance or repairs.

Emissions from natural gas combustion in 2022 decreased by 1.6% (or 118 million tons), especially noticeable in Europe (by 13.5%) and the Asia-Pacific region (by 1.8%). The decrease in gas consumption associated with the consequences of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, however, is offset by an increase in emissions from coal combustion, the demand for which exceeded the records of 2018 — emissions grew faster than the average for ten years, their volume reached 15.5 billion tons (plus 1.6%, or 243 million tons). Emissions from oil burning grew even more significantly – by 2.5%, or by 268 million tons, to 11.2 billion tons. About half of this increase, according to the IEA, is associated with the restoration of air travel after the lifting of coronavirus restrictions.

At the same time, while most Asian countries showed a significant increase in emissions (by an average of 4.2%, most of which comes from coal combustion), in China they, although slightly (by 0.2%, or 23 million tons), decreased by compared to 2021 data. The IEA estimates that the slowdown in economic activity associated with a “zero tolerance” policy for the coronavirus led to a decrease in emissions from Chinese industries by 161 million tons, some of the increase was recorded solely in connection with coal burning.

The decrease in industrial production also explains the decrease (by 2.5%, or 70 million tons) in CO2 emissions in the European Union, the forecasts for which were perhaps the most pessimistic. The improvement of the situation is also associated with the increase in the use of renewable energy: we recall that due to the energy crisis, analysts feared a slowdown in the European energy transition. Experts associated potential difficulties with the slowdown in the refusal to subsidize the production of fossil fuels (including coal) due to high prices for metals supplied by the Russian Federation, which are necessary for the production and maintenance of renewable energy sources (for more details, see Kommersant dated April 22, 2022). However, contrary to fears, electricity generation from wind and solar energy in Europe in 2022 for the first time turned out to be more than generation from gas and nuclear. The IEA estimates that thanks to the increased deployment of renewable energy, the world has avoided an “additional” 550 million tons of CO2 emissions. However, it is too early to talk about the normalization of the pace of introduction of “clean” energy, analysts say, agreeing with the IMF that developed countries, which account for most of the emissions, should pay most of the costs of the energy transition.

Christina Borovikova