Military seizes power in oil-producing Gabon

On the morning of August 30, the Gabon army announced the deposition of the country’s president, 64-year-old Ali Bongo, who ruled for 14 years. Ali Bongo’s father Omar was in power from 1967 until his death in 2009. The coup was televised minutes after Bongo’s victory in Saturday’s presidential election with 64.26% of the vote was announced. The military announced the annulment of the voting results, the closure of borders and the dissolution of all existing institutions of power, including the government, parliament and the constitutional court. A number of key functionaries were arrested, and Bongo was placed under house arrest.

A junta of police, Republican Guard, regular army and air force officers named itself the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of State Institutions. Colonel of the ground forces Ulrich Manfumbi spoke on his behalf. The putschist also turned out to be the Chief of the General Staff Aime-Vivien Oyni.

General Bris Oligui Nguema was appointed President for the transitional period. He told the French Le Monde that the ousted President Bongo was “enjoying all his rights.” As with the coup in Niger at the end of July, the conspirators suspended the broadcasts of the French state media – radio station RFI and TV channel France24. Both countries were previously part of the French colonial empire.

France, which has 400 military instructors in the country, as well as the African Union condemned the military coup attempt and called for the President to be guaranteed immunity. The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern about the situation in the country and urged Russians to refrain from traveling to Gabon. China, which has major economic interests in the country, called on all parties to the conflict to take into account the interests of the people and resolve contradictions through dialogue.

Gabon is one of the most prosperous countries in Tropical Africa with a relatively high per capita GDP due to a small population (2.4 million people) and large oil reserves for such a state (proven reserves are about 2 billion barrels). The Gabonese oil company Assala Energy on August 30 assured that the events of the coup did not affect production in any way.

Gabon was an economically and politically stable state for Africa, said Sergey Kostelyanets, head of the Center for Sociological and Political Research at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, events there continue the trend of the past three years towards military coups on the continent. This trend has common roots regardless of the nominal level of GDP, says Kostelanetz. These are corruption, poverty (40% of Gabonese are below it), the uneven distribution of income from resource rent, the lack of social lifts for young people.

“The insurgent military saw no prospects under the current regime, but they were sure that the population would not support the president. And so it happened, judging by the video of the jubilant demonstrators, the same thing happened in Niger, ”says Kostelyanets. Unlike the coups in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, in Gabon there is no bright anti-French coloring of the coup yet, apart from turning off the French media, Kostelanetz notes. Nevertheless, this is yet another nail in the coffin of the post-colonial Francafrique project, which official Paris is trying to deny. Gabon, under the rule of the Bongo clan, has been a safe haven for the French in Africa for many years, the expert states.

Gabon is one of the most modest oil producers in OPEC, Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investments, notes. According to him, a record volume of over 370,000 barrels per day was reached in 1995. “Accordingly, even in the event of a complete stop in production, the oil market will hardly notice the retired volumes,” says Kochetkov. The country is producing about 200,000 bpd, according to June 2023 data, so the coup, even if it disrupts exports, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market, agrees senior analyst Alfa bank Nikita Blokhin.