Military conflict in Sudan escalates into a new civil war

Full-scale fighting using all available weapons does not stop in Sudan, where since Saturday the armed forces have been fighting against the so-called Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – a group created on the basis of Arab militias. Artillery and aviation are involved in the battles, Al Jazeera TV channel reports. Explosions are heard in the capital, Khartoum, as well as the nearby cities of Omdurman and Bahri. The number of victims is growing rapidly. According to Al Jazeera, citing the Sudanese Medical Union, on the morning of April 16, at least 56 civilians were killed in clashes, and the number of wounded, including soldiers, reached 595 people.

The conflict between the two main figures in the military-political leadership of the country led to the outbreak of civil war – General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the armed forces (more than 104,000 people, including the Navy and Air Force), and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemeti”, commander RSF (more than 40,000 people, armed with armored personnel carriers and artillery). In the highest military-civilian authority – the Sovereign Council – al-Burkhan is the chairman, and Hemeti is his deputy. The conflict between military leaders escalated after the conclusion on December 5, 2022 of an agreement between military and civilian structures. As Al Jazeera explains, one of the elements of this agreement was the issue of integrating the RSF into the structure of the armed forces. The steps taken for this integration were too hasty and led to an even sharper conflict between the army and the RSF. The parties could not agree on both the inclusion of the RSF in a single army structure, and the exit of the military from profitable economic sectors. The latter is highly sensitive to the RSF, which controls several gold deposits in Sudan. In addition, adds Al Jazeera, it could also be about holding military personnel accountable for past crimes, which also could not suit the RSF. This organization was created on the basis of the Janjaweed militia – the militia of the Arab pastoralists.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged the Sudanese military to stop the violence, and also discussed what is happening with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and African Union Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat. By Sunday evening, the UN reported that the parties had agreed to a three-hour humanitarian truce. A group of Egyptian military personnel who arrived for exercises in Sudan were captured by the RSF along with MiG-29 fighters. Andrey Chernovol, Russian Ambassador to Sudan, also expressed his hope for a speedy peaceful settlement of the conflict.

Back in 2020, Russia concluded an agreement with Sudan on the deployment of a logistic support point (PMTO) in the Red Sea for the Russian Navy. Subsequently, the Sudanese authorities expressed their desire to revise this agreement. Finally, it must be ratified by the civil authorities after the transfer of power to them.

The conflict between the regular army of Sudan and the RSF, according to Natalya Piskunova, an associate professor at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, may turn out to be a long one. And without the intervention of some major player from the outside, it will be difficult to resolve it. For Russia, Sudan, in conditions of internal instability, is of interest rather than as a place for the Navy’s PMTO, but as a point where merchant ships traveling through the Suez Canal can be serviced, the expert believes.

The contradictions between the army and the RSF have been accumulating for a long time and now the conflict could no longer be frozen, agrees researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Grigory Lukyanov. What is happening demonstrates the deep contradictions between the military circles of Sudan and civilian politicians and the latter’s lack of serious opportunities to influence what is happening in the country. A prolongation of the confrontation will affect the Sudanese economy in the most negative way and may weaken both opposing factions, increasing the importance of civilian forces in the political life of Sudan. At the same time, the expert adds, it should be remembered that the RSF is a legalized formation of Arab nomads, which may ultimately not withstand the confrontation with a regular army with aviation. Outside players like Egypt will provide covert support for al-Burhan’s forces, as Cairo sees the regular army as a more reliable ally than the RSF freemen. It should also be noted that the RSF failed to play on the effect of surprise – the army did not crumble under their blows, the chain of command was not destroyed, and the officers of the armed forces integrated into the RSF returned to al-Burkhan. As for the Russian factor, Moscow does not play a significant role in the Sudanese conflict, Lukyanov argues. The base project for the Russian Navy remains extremely beneficial for Sudan, but its construction does not make sense if the conflict drags on and the Sudanese leadership fails to ensure the implementation of earlier decisions.

After the clashes began, TASS, citing Ukrainian airlines, reported that about 30 people from the crews of Ukrainian airlines were blocked in Sudan. It cannot be ruled out that Sudan serves as a hub for arms purchases for Ukraine, Lukyanov says. Certain groups can engage in the sale and resale of weapons both on their own and with the sanction of the military-political leadership of the country. Sufficient stocks of weapons have accumulated in Sudan, besides, the country has its own military industry, so the likelihood of the existence of such schemes related to the corruption of the same RSF exists, the expert believes.