Markets are determined with a “military premium” – Kommersant FM
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Markets reacted minimally to Iran’s strike on Israel, with Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index falling less than 2% in early trading and Qatar’s falling just over 1.5%. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange index fell by 0.4%, and shares of the country’s five largest banks fell by the same amount. Against the background of the worsening situation in the Middle East and the exchange of blows between Israel and Iran, analysts are trying to predict what will happen to oil prices. In the event of further escalation, namely an attack from Jerusalem, the world market may be short of up to 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, the Financial University said.
“Kommersant FM” asked the investment strategist of the management company “Arikapital” Sergei Suverov to predict how prices will behave if the situation develops according to two main possible scenarios: “The situation in the Middle East and the “war” premium in oil prices remain the main topic for determining future of Brent quotes. If Israel launches retaliatory strikes against Iran, they could rise to $95-97 per barrel, and perhaps even to $100.
At the same time, there is an understanding that both sides are not interested in a full-scale war with each other, so the rise in oil prices may be short-term, and the situation will calm down a little.
If the worst-case scenario is realized, and Israel and Iran nevertheless start a large-scale conflict, then the future of all prices is unpredictable. Possible rises to $120-150 per barrel. This is fraught with a global financial crisis. But I think that in this case, of course, OPEC+ will be forced to sharply increase production and somehow try to influence the situation so that prices do not return to a more normal position.”
On April 12, Brent quotes rose above $92 per barrel for the first time since October 2023. But how will markets open on Monday? The head of the economic department of the Institute of Energy and Finance, Sergei Kondratyev, does not expect strong jumps in oil prices: “In my opinion, if there is no further significant escalation that will really threaten shipping in the Persian Gulf and the oil infrastructure of Arab countries, in particular Iran, then we We may see a very slight increase in prices for raw materials.
But still, these events will not have a significant impact on price dynamics or on the market, because so far we see that the situation remains under control, and yet to a greater extent these are threats rather than real actions.”
Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two important Israeli installations were damaged in the overnight attack on Israel. The IDF said that one of the army bases suffered “minimal damage.”
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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