Life wins back from the pandemic – Newspaper Kommersant No. 226 (7427) of 12/06/2022
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According to the results of 2022, life expectancy in the Russian Federation may increase by 1.8 years (after a fall in the indicator due to the pandemic by 3.3 years in 2020-2021), Minister of Health Mikhail Murashko said yesterday. If the forecast comes true, life expectancy in Russia will be 71.8 years. This recovery growth can be explained by the “harvest effect” – if the virus claimed the lives of those who would soon die due to health problems, after the end of the pandemic, the expected duration should increase.
The fall in life expectancy of Russians, which was recorded in 2020–2021 due to the pandemic, may be replaced by recovery growth as early as this year. This was announced yesterday by the head of the Ministry of Health, Mikhail Murashko, as part of the Russian Health Week 2022 forum. “Today we have reached a sustainable trajectory of reducing mortality. In fact, in a short period, this indicator has reached even lower values compared to the “pre-pandemic” 2019,” the minister said. According to him, mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system has decreased by almost 10%, and by 4.5% – from cancer. Taking into account such dynamics, by the end of 2022, an increase in life expectancy by 1.8 years is predicted in Russia.
Recall that the indicator of life expectancy in the interpretation of Rosstat reflects the number of years that a person born in a certain year can live – provided that throughout the life of his hypothetical generation the mortality rate remains the same as in the year for which this is calculated. index. Life expectancy is widely used to assess the well-being of a population and indirectly indicates the quality of health systems. In Russia, it was included in the target indicators of all profile national projects. Now this indicator is used to assess the achievement by the government of national development goals for the period up to 2024 and for the planning period up to 2030. In 2022, it should be 71 years, in 2023 – 73.2 years, in 2030 – 78 years.
It should be noted that these indicators of the unified government plan were formed after the start of the pandemic, and, accordingly, this document approved the previously delayed achievement of the goals of the Healthcare national project, launched in 2018. He assumed that life expectancy would reach 78 years as early as 2024. In fact, at the end of 2020, it decreased by 1.8 years and, according to Rosstat, amounted to only 71.5 years. At the end of 2021, the reduction continued and, according to the Ministry of Health, amounted to another 1.5 years – the figure fell to 70 years. Compared to other countries, this reduction can be considered significant. It was most likely caused by the fact that in the Russian Federation, people often died from coronavirus or from an exacerbation of other diseases, primarily cardiovascular diseases, at a relatively young age – starting at the age of 45.
If the forecast of the head of the Ministry of Health is justified, then by the end of 2022, the indicator of life expectancy in the Russian Federation will be 71.8 years, exceeding the planned one by 0.8 years. It can be assumed that the so-called harvest effect makes the greatest contribution to such a sharp increase in the indicator. In the case of a pandemic, he suggests that during it, including those who could soon die from other causes due to their state of health, died from the virus. Accordingly, if they died “early”, life expectancy may improve.
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